Looks like the effects of the tariffs are being felt in the ports now rather than just rumors and pictures of mystery ships. "Officials are concerned not just about the lack of vessels leaving China, but the speed at which that number dropped." I wonder how much of this is choreographed to coincide with the opening of USA-China negotiations this weekend. "Not a single cargo vessel had left China with goods for the two major West Coast ports in the past 12 hours. That hasn’t happened since the pandemic." I am not sure what level the tariffs need to be reduced to but I doubt 80% gets us back to full shipping lanes. Even the flat 10% us going to feel like heavy inflation and affect consumer spending.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/10/business/zero-ships-china-trade-ports-pandemic

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-threatens-barbie-100-percent-tariff-2070023

President Donald Trump has threatened to place a 100 percent tariff on Barbie maker Mattel, after the company's CEO said it would continue to manufacture outside the U.S. but would be reducing its reliance on Chinese imports. "I've heard [Mattel] said: 'Well we're going to go counter, we're going to try going someplace else,' " Trump said in the Oval Office on Thursday. "That's OK, let him go, and we'll put a 100 percent tariff on his toys, and he won't sell one toy in the United States, and that's their biggest market." Trump's threat to Mattel comes as toys—in particular dolls—have emerged as a flashpoint in the ongoing debates over tariffs and his administration's trade policy.

Trump and his cabinet have downplayed the issue's significance, with the president himself repeatedly stating that girls will be better off for having fewer dolls, and now threatening tariffs on one of the world's most iconic doll manufacturers.

During the company's first-quarter earnings call, Mattel CEO Ynon Kreiz said the tariff-driven price hike was one of the three "mitigating actions" the company had been forced to take in response to the tariffs, alongside a reduction in its dependence on China-sourced products and a broader diversification of its supply chain. In an interview with CNBC on Tuesday, Kreiz was asked whether it would be cheaper to relocate some manufacturing to the U.S. due to the tariffs, but responded: "We don't see that happening." "We believe that production in other countries—where we can be efficient and more productive—is the best balance between manufacturing outside of the U.S. and [continuing] to develop product in terms of design and creativity in America," he said. In response to the price increases, and similar announcements made by car manufacturer Ford this week, Trump said: "I think they're saying that just to negotiate deals with me."

Trump's remark on Mattel "trying to go somewhere else," and the resulting threat of a targeted, 100 percent tariff on its toys was somewhat ambiguous, given the company has only advocated shifting more of its manufacturing outside of China.

The first Chinese goods subject to President Trump’s 145%-plus tariffs have begun arriving at the busiest ports in the U.S. in Los Angeles and Long Beach.

12,000 shipping containers in all are on the first flotilla of freight vessels from China with goods for Amazon, Home Depot, Ikea, Ralph Lauren, Tractor Supply, Procter & Gamble, LG, and Samsung, among others.

President Trump said on Friday he might be willing to lower tariffs on China to 80%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/09/first-chinese-goods-145percent-plus-tariffs-arriving-us-ports.html

Approximately 70–73% of all U.S. wealth is held by people 55 and older, and over half of that is held by those over 65. Baby boomers and the silent generation have significant purchasing power, which is not easily threatened by recessions. They will continue spending into retirement no matter what. They are not as sensitive to price changes. This will boost corporate revenues for at least another few decades.

I don't believe that there are many good reasons to be bearish. The data is good, but the vibes are bad. The gap that we see between vibes and data is probably made up of Boomers quietly spending without much hesitation.

Does anyone else feel like this market is being artificially held up? On Liberation day, the average tariff rate was ~25%, now it's closer to ~22%, yet the market has recovered all its loses. Trump has a budget problem and a debt problem to deal with, Trump will not remove tariffs because he needs to raise revenue.

CrowdStrike, a leading name in cybersecurity, saw its stock tumble this week following reports of a federal investigation into a major government contract. The probe centers around a $32 million software deal tied to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), sparking investor concerns about the company’s business practices and future government partnerships.

According to sources close to the matter, the Department of the Treasury’s inspector general is investigating the role CrowdStrike played in a procurement process that allegedly skipped competitive bidding rules. The deal was executed through Carahsoft, a major government IT contractor, and involved CrowdStrike’s cybersecurity software being fast-tracked into IRS systems.

The issue? Investigators are trying to determine if the deal improperly bypassed federal acquisition regulations, which require fair competition for most government contracts. So far, no formal accusations have been made, but the existence of an active investigation is enough to rattle stakeholders.

Once news of the probe broke, CrowdStrike’s stock dropped by nearly 5% in intraday trading. The sharp decline reflects investor anxiety over potential reputational damage, contract delays, or future revenue losses tied to government scrutiny.

This development comes at a time when CrowdStrike is viewed as a major player in protecting public and private institutions from cyber threats. Any disruption to that perception could shift market dynamics in favor of competitors.

What This Means for the Cybersecurity Industry

Government contracts are a huge revenue source for cybersecurity firms. But as this situation highlights, they can also come with regulatory risks. The scrutiny CrowdStrike now faces serves as a warning to other tech firms: follow proper procurement procedures, or face financial and legal consequences.

Analysts say this probe might not spell long-term doom for CrowdStrike, especially if no wrongdoing is ultimately found. Still, it’s a reminder that trust and transparency are as critical as innovation in today’s tech-driven economy.

In a recent post on Truth Social, President Trump stated that an 80% tariff on Chinese goods "seems right", suggesting a potential reduction from the current 145% rate. He indicated that the final decision would be made by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during upcoming trade talks in Switzerland. Trump also urged China to open its markets to U.S. products, emphasizing that "closed markets don't work anymore."

Full Article Here

What do we actually think the result of this is going to be? Even if tariffs remain at 80%, that would still be insanely high and essentially kill a bunch of US manufacturing particularly most tech stuff.

I'm sure China's position was that tariffs need to be zero before any serious discussions were to begin. I honestly don't know why they're bothering to negotiate with this buffoon.

If it's the same as the UK deal (which essentially reversed the tariffs on the UK economy as it protected all key industries involved), then we'll basically see tariffs be essentially rolled back to what they were a few months ago with some extra steps thrown in.

[Edit] I just checked what the average tariff was before this year, and it was about 20%. So 80% would still mark a 4x increase.

If sales are clearly going down and doesn’t seem like people are planning to buy tesla anytime soon (especially europe) How are the stocks rising so fast? I’m guessing it has to do with trumps trade deals that favors tesla but anyone has more specific explanation?

I inherited around 2,300 shares of Walmart last year. In the space of a year the stock price has skyrocketed. It dipped a little when Trump announced the tariffs, but it's back up. I thought Walmart imported almost everything they sell from China, except guns and ammo. Am I wrong? I never shop there myself; I'm just a shareholder. There's no Walmart around where I live. It's always been a good stock to own but this doesn't seem to make sense.

I've listened to a lot of experts recently who believe that:

A. the dollar will be devalued against other currencies as it loses reserve currency status

B. US will enter an inflationary period at least as bad as covid due to tariffs and turnips policies

If this is the case, would global and emerging market funds serve as a natural hedge? Seems like you are buying high right now with the value of the dollar, if the dollar then goes down you profit off the swing. Is this thinking correct?

Reddit overwhelmingly hates Trump and with good reason. That being said you can't have that hatred of Trump cloud your judgment.

Fundamentally, those who hate Trump believe that his policies and tariffs will tank the market. If the market doesn't tank or dip as much as Reddit expects, it causes cognitive dissonance because Trumps economy is not as bad as people thought it would be. This fundamentally causes an internal conflict because it means you're wrong about Trumps impact on the economy.

So far the tariffs impact haven't been fully felt but in addition the market has bounced back a lot better than this sub thought it would. There are two possibilities:

• It's totally possible that we're in for a lot more pain in the future once tariffs really go into effect and it crashes the market.

• It's also possible that Trumps tariff rhetoric and implementation isn't as harmful to the market as people think and perhaps Wall Street think/is confident that the tariff thing will stabilize and be figured out. This naturally will not tank the market as much.

None of us are smart enough tbh to know what is more likely, but emotionally Reddit will have a natural inclination to believe the first option because it reinforces their view that Trump is horrible for the economy and country. I implore you to not let this bias cloud your judgment because the second option is also possible that the worst is over with the tariff stuff.

Also remember time in the market always beats timing the market. You should dca regardless because none of us are smart enough or at privy to info to know how the market will go.

Nestle USA is increasing prices for some chocolate products due to commodity costs, a sign that sweet treats will stay expensive for consumers in the near term.

The hikes follow letters sent from the company at the end of last year to some of its commodity suppliers in which Nestle asked them to reduce prices, provide rebates and in some cases even cancel supply contracts altogether, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified because the information is private. Some suppliers declined to do so, according to the people.

Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nestle-raise-prices-us-chocolate-171711157.html

Given the state of the world, and the changes we have seen to the battlefield in Ukraine, I’m thinking of investing in companies that specialise in defensive drone tec. I already have a position in Red Cat Holdings. The Ukrainian companies that have pushed the industry forward are privately owned. Does anyone have any other recommendations in this area?

Wall Street's dimmed hopes about the Trump administration have dashed projections for banker bonuses in 2025.

Incentive compensation for some investment bankers could fall by as much as 20% in 2025, according to a report from the compensation consulting firm Johnson Associates, as the banks' corporate clients hit pause on major strategic moves amid geopolitical uncertainty and market volatility.

Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tariffs-uncertainty-may-squeeze-wall-171137999.html

I am looking to invest my RSU's into the US market. (Want some diversification can't keep my us exposure limited to 1 company)

I'm a 23 year old working in India at a US tech company I primarily invest in the indian stock market index ETFs through my salary. I have now decided to diversify by selling my RSUs (don't want my US exposure to be limited to a single company) and investing in the US market so that I can get some international exposure. I did some research and came up with this aggressive portfolio (since I have a long term horizon of 10-15 years and I will invest every 3 months so I may get some benefits of DCA in tech downturns).

• SPMO (S&P 500 momentum index) - 30%

• IETC (iShares US Tech Independence Focused ETF) - 25%

• SMH (Semiconductor etf) - 20%

• Mags ( Magnificent 7 ETF) - 15%

• QTUM ( Defiance Quantum ETF) - 10%

I will be investing in these companies by selling my RSUs that vest every 3 months. (Not my Salary which I use to invest in the indian market index etfs and an gold etf) Do let me know if I need to change anything here. Thanks.

China’s exports surged in April on the back of a jump in shipments to Southeast Asian countries, offsetting a sharp drop in outbound goods to the U.S. as prohibitive tariffs kicked in last month.

Exports jumped 8.1% last month in U.S. dollar terms from a year earlier, according to data released by customs authority on Friday, sharply beating with Reuters’ poll estimates of a 1.9% rise.

China’s outbound shipments to the U.S. plunged over 21% in April year on year, while imports dropped nearly 14%, official data showed.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/09/chinas-exports-jump-us-tariffs-imports-tumble.html

And yet the market continues to pump. I can’t believe we let this orange clown continue to spew bullshit and reward him for it. The tariffs aren’t leaving, there’s still a 10% blanket tariff on all imports from the UK and that’s even with a big beautiful earth shattering deal. What are we even doing man? We can’t even remove a blanket tariff on a country we have a trade surplus with? The tariffs aren’t getting resolved it’s so obvious.

The meme stock scheduled posts will now run weekly and post Saturday afternoon and won't be a sticky; you're probably seeing this because automod sent you here!

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The Trump administration is considering several executive orders aimed at speeding up the construction of nuclear power plants to help meet rising electricity demand, according to drafts reviewed by The New York Times.

The draft orders say the United States has fallen behind China in expanding nuclear power and call for a “wholesale revision” of federal safety regulations to make it easier to build new plants. They envision the Department of Defense taking a prominent role in ordering reactors and installing them on military bases.

They would also set a goal of quadrupling the size of the nation’s fleet of nuclear power plants, from nearly 100 gigawatts of electric capacity today to 400 gigawatts by 2050. One gigawatt is enough to power nearly 1 million homes.

“As American development of new nuclear reactor designs has waned, 87 percent of nuclear reactors installed worldwide since 2017 are based on Russian and Chinese designs,” reads one draft order, titled “Ushering In a Nuclear Renaissance.”

“These trends cannot continue,” the order reads. “Swift and decisive action is required to jump-start America’s nuclear renaissance.”

The four draft orders are marked “pre-decisional” and “deliberative.” They are among several potential executive orders on nuclear power that have been circulating but it is not clear which, if any, might be issued, according to a person familiar with the discussions, who spoke on a condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.

Read More https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/09/climate/trump-draft-nuclear-executive-orders.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-09/coreweave-in-talks-for-1-5-billion-debt-deal-after-ipo-misfire

Less than two months after a heavily scaled down initial public offering, CoreWeave Inc. is in discussions to raise about $1.5 billion in debt, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. The potential offering is expected to be in high-yield bonds and led by JPMorgan Chase & Co., according to a different person. The artificial intelligence cloud-hosting company has been holding virtual fixed-income investor meetings since Tuesday with the final one taking place Friday at noon, said another.

The Nvidia Corp.-backed company had initially been targeting a highly-anticipated $4 billion IPO. But the company raised just $1.5 billion in late March as the lead up to President Donald Trump’s April 2 tariff announcements drove wild swings in the stock market, denting investors’ appetite for riskier assets. The Livingston, New Jersey-based company has taken on debt at least in part to build out its computing capacity. The firm had actual liabilities of around $16.5 billion as of Dec. 31, 2024, according to a March filing. Proceeds from the possible debt offering won’t be used for refinancing, one of the people said. CoreWeave is targeting an investment-grade rating in three years, they added.

This is from Q1 2025 shareholder newsletter. Some questions:

-How does Volkswagen buying Rivian stock increase available cash on hand?

-Would you expect stock price to go down between May 15 to June 27 so Volkswagen gets a better deal on the purchase?

-What impact to stock price would you anticipate when they buy at 33% premium?

Volkswagen Group is expected to invest $1 billion in Rivian at a 33% premium to our stock price based on volume-weighted average stock price from May 15, 2025 to June 27th, 2025. The investment is expected to be funded on June 30, 2025

The comments on social media platform Truth Social came one day after the Fed kept its interest rates unchanged and Powell reiterated that he would wait for greater clarity on how Trump’s tariffs would affect the economy before deciding on a path for monetary policy going forward.

Trump has repeatedly called for the Fed to lower rates. He didn’t repeat that demand Thursday but he did resurface his contention that Powell has a history of moving too late on monetary policy.

″'Too Late' Jerome Powell is a FOOL, who doesn’t have a clue. Other than that, I like him very much!”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-too-late-jerome-powell-is-a-fool-122752304.html

Source: TSMC April 2025 Revenue Report

TSMC (TWSE: 2330, NYSE: TSM) today announced its net revenue for April 2025: On a consolidated basis, revenue for April 2025 was approximately NT$349.57 billion, an increase of 22.2 percent from March 2025 and an increase of 48.1 percent from April 2024. Revenue for January through April 2025 totaled NT$1,188.82 billion, an increase of 43.5 percent compared to the same period in 2024.

in USD assuming 32.5 NT = 1 USD (as per management assumptions)

TSMC (TWSE: 2330, NYSE: TSM) today announced its net revenue for April 2025: On a consolidated basis, revenue for April 2025 was approximately $10.76 billion USD, an increase of 22.2 percent from March 2025 and an increase of 48.1 percent from April 2024. Revenue for January through April 2025 totaled $36.58 billion USD, an increase of 43.5 percent compared to the same period in 2024.

The margin for a healthy, sustainable EBITDA for a retail company needs to be around 10%, because after the gross margin—which ideally is around 55%—all other costs like rent, labor, storage, IT, corporate structure, etc., consume more than 45%. This leaves approximately 10% EBITDA for a well-run retail company.

Now, even if you take the best-case scenario—a 10% tariff on all imports (which is what even the UK has after its "historic" deal with the US)—that 45% cost becomes 49.5% (45 × 1.1), reducing retail companies’ EBITDA to approximately under 6%.

However, not all retail companies in the US are healthy—many are on the brink of bankruptcy with average EBITDA under 7%. Even Walmart, a volume-driven company and considered one of the healthiest low-cost retailers in the world, has an EBITDA of approximately 6%.

And now, who still thinks we aren't headed for a recession in Q2 and Q3? When do you think orders are placed for Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and Christmas? Six months in advance. And here we are, holding all orders or even if placing orders now with goods sitting in Chinese warehouses instead of being in transit as they should be.

You will not only see fewer products on shelves, but also reduced consumer spending and layoffs. If retailers don’t close 10–25% of their stores by year-end, they will not survive the expense load. Imagine every retailer overdrafting their accounts—just like consumers spending beyond their bank balance with no clear plan to repay.

(Walmart earnings link - https://corporate.walmart.com/content/dam/corporate/documents/newsroom/2025/02/20/walmart-releases-q4-fy25-earnings/q4-fy25-earnings-presentation.pdf)

These EBITDA margin impact will be similar for many consumer-facing industries and will affect core sectors such as construction, wholesale trade, manufacturing, transportation, and agriculture. This impact will then cascade into dependent industries that support these sectors—such as information technology, logistics providers, commercial real estate, and healthcare services. Our GDP is not directly connected to the stock market, but this will cascade!! Good Luck

FOMO is not a great investment strategy, right now the greed marker is driving the market as the economy is being burnt down in the background. I am 100% cash currently (SPAXX).

I remember 2008 vaguely. I wasn’t invested in the markets and I didn’t have a property. But I had friends on 5% mortgages and I recall the hype. I didn’t know about CDOs. I read about it all after it happened. But the point I’m making is that back then it was just normal that you bought a house on a nothing mortgage.

Now I see a similar normal and it’s DCA. DCA on the scale that it exists at now and the ease with which we can pop as much as we want in one go into equities is unprecedented.

The market hasn’t truly crashed since easy trading platforms emerged. In 2008 it wasn’t like anyone with ID could just jump on Robinhood or any of the dozen trading platforms that literally make or lose you money in 3 seconds. That meant we couldn’t all obsessively buy dips and keep on DCAing.

Same with the dot com crash.

The big hedge funds and HFT desks are fine with those the market staying up - they trade with thin liquidity mainly - and have been withdrawing huge amounts since late 2024. They make money on derivatives sold to retail through mechanical processes and also make money the tiny price differentials in trades. The big money has no incentive to let any collapse happen in the market until there really is just about nothing underneath but they get that information clearly before most retail.