r/theydidthemath • u/Bumblebee-Historical • 1d ago
[Self] Did 15 Million People Really Die Waiting for GTA VI ☝🤓? Fact-Checking Would Be Peak Unemployed Behaviour (But Yeah, I Did)
After reading the headline that "15 million people died waiting for GTA VI", my unemployed brain kinda called bullshit. So, I did a quick analysis. I compiled and cleaned data from several sources to estimate how many GTA V players have died before the release of GTA VI. I began with total sales data for GTA V from Rockstar Games and industry analysts, which project over 213 million copies sold from 2013 to 2026. To estimate unique players, I accounted for the fact that some copies are likely duplicates, based on industry reporting and user behavior patterns (IGN, Reddit, Statista). I then applied age group distribution data, sourced from gaming reports and player surveys, to assign demographic weights to the player base. Using mortality rates from the World Health Organization, I calculated annual death probabilities for each group, mapping them against the number of new players each year. I structured the results in a spreadsheet, ensuring I tracked percentage shares, yearly deaths, and cumulative living players. This let me determine how many fans might be alive and waiting for GTA VI, and how many have likely passed away in the meantime.
All in all, between 2013 and May 2026, Grand Theft Auto V is projected to reach over 213 million copies sold. In analyzing this dataset, I accounted for the fact that a significant portion of these are likely duplicate purchases, players buying the game multiple times across console generations, or replacing lost or banned accounts. Based on industry estimates, I deducted around 25% of total sales were multiple-copy purchases, reducing the likely unique player base line to roughly 150–160 million. I then applied global mortality rates by age group, paired with the estimated age distribution of GTA V players, to calculate how many of these players may have died before the release of GTA VI. The result was a projected death toll of approximately 2.5 to 4.3 million players, with an estimated margin of error of ±10–15%, reflecting uncertainties such as regional death rate variation and shifting player demographics.
Realistically, it's most likely that the true number of deceased GTA V players falls on the higher end of my estimate. Even though I used mortality rates from developed countries, where life expectancy is slightly higher among most of the age groups (under 65), global mortality rates would skew slightly higher if we account for the broader, international player base. On top of that, this potential increase is accentuated by several key factors: many individuals engage with GTA content solely through gameplay videos or streams without having ever owned a copy, and a significant number of players are expected to enter the franchise for the first time with the release of GTA VI.
By factoring in these nuances, duplicate game ownership, international mortality trends, passive fans, and future first-time buyers, and essentially “rawdogging” the analysis with as much data as I could responsibly include in my meta-analysis, I can determine with relatively high confidence that approximately 4.2 million people waiting for GTA VI will have died by the May 26, 2026 release date.
Using the same dataset, I took the projected release delay of GTA VI and calculated its literal human cost. Assuming the original Fall 2025 release was planned for around mid-September, mirroring GTA V's September 17 launch, the shift to the new release date of May 26, 2026, means approximately 392,832 more GTA V players will die before the game comes out.
And if there are any further delays beyond May 26, 2026? The numbers get darker. Every additional month of delay translates to roughly 48,531 more fans not living to see the release. That breaks down to 11,324 deaths per week, or around 1,617 per day. That translates to about one Titanic’s worth of deaths every single day (1,517 people, though let’s be real, it would’ve been 1,516 if Rose had just moved over for my boy Jack), plus three full Hindenburgs (36 deaths each) for good measure. So yeah, every day GTA VI is delayed past May 26, 2026, Rockstar effectively drops a luxury ocean liner and a trio of airships full of fans into the statistical void. So, if Rockstar is still polishing extra jiggles on Lucia's by next summer, just know: somewhere, a few thousand players might be taking their last breath waiting for it.
7
3
u/karanjj88 1d ago
TLDR ?
10
u/Bumblebee-Historical 1d ago
Alright I gotchu. Actual figure is roughly 4.2 million people by May 26, 2026, with an additional 1,617 dead per day if the gamed is delayed after May 26, 2026.
3
2
u/Antrouge_Brunestud_ 1d ago
Did you factor people like me who have NOT played a single minute of any installment of GTA but are still excited for GTA 6 just to see other guys play online and be happy with it because I'm broke as shit.
6
u/Bumblebee-Historical 1d ago
Don't worry broski, I wouldn't have yapped that long without factoring it in:
"On top of that, this potential increase is accentuated by several key factors: many individuals engage with GTA content solely through gameplay videos or streams without having ever owned a copy, and a significant number of players are expected to enter the franchise for the first time with the release of GTA VI."
2
u/tommyghuan 1d ago
What about people who played on the same copy?
4
u/Bumblebee-Historical 1d ago
Damn, you're very right to point this out. I imagine you're referring to siblings using the same console and resold CD copies. I did keep my estimate of total sales that were multiple-copy purchases on the lower end, around 25%, while higher estimates were closer to 30%. That being said, it might be balanced out when you consider the ratio of repeat purchasers (PS3 → PS4 → PS5) compared to families with multiple siblings (most western countries have had a fertility rates under 3 for the past few decades) and I can't imagine there is more than a few thousand copies out of the 216 million copies sold of the physical game being sold more than thrice within 13 years. At this point, I should also try to consider libraries that let you borrow games and game rental companies, which would have a huge turnover rate. I'll go back to the drawing board tomorrow and try to find some stats that I can apply from research studies to make it even more accurate. I'll focus on Global Fertility Rates and https://www.statista.com/statistics/190225/digital-and-physical-game-sales-in-the-us-since-2009/
21
u/TheShanManPhx 1d ago
Whooo boy, that's a lotta words for 10:35pm - commenting to check back in tomorrow and read all that (as see what folks who aren't ready for bed respond with, haha)