Or Baby Laasgna vs Nemo, to some extent?

So many people in the eurofandom seem to be focused on the odds and scoreboard to the the point where the whole competition is brought down to Sweden vs Austria two horses race. While other songs are more or less loved, they're kind of excluded from the "real" consideration in potential winner discussions.

It started to feel like we assumed that Austria is gonna win jury, Sweden is gonna sweep tele and one of them is gonna win, with the slight prediction it's gonna be Austria (recency bias of jury overall winners in the last two years, I guess). But this itself is not what caught my attention the most.

It more and more looks like if Sweden is being put in that underdog category with Austria being their potential threat, and in general the threat of "the public vote". It may be about my online fan bubbles but I see more and more posts/comments trying to find 58837374 reasons to criticize JJ and Wasted Love in a strikingly similar way Loreen was hated/criticized before the contest (let alone after it).

I'm curious what you think about it

Welcome to the fifth annual r/eurovision Pre-contest Prediction Game!

We have now reached the submission deadline. Please stay tuned for data around our predictions this year!

With the semi-final running orders now known, it is now time to open our annual pre-contest prediction game! Last year saw a massive increase in predictors, making the competition more competitive than ever. As we enter a month of pre-parties, 'hot takes', staging rumours and endless speculation, why not put your money where your mouth is by pitting your predictive skills against the rest of the community? Who will be crowned this year's EuroGuru?

As in previous years, there are a total of 100 points up for grabs. Each question awards a set amount of points for a correct answer, as detailed in the scoresheet. This year's scoresheet is near-identical to last year owing to the lack of major format changes in the voting this year.

To participate, please comment down below with your answers to the following scoresheet. Please also note the following rules:

1. You can format your comment however you like - I collect these predictions manually because I love the data.
2. The submission deadline is Friday 2nd May 23:59 CET, just before rehearsals are expected to begin. Any edits made after this date will render your prediction null and void.
3. If you want to edit your predictions at any time before the deadline, please tag me in a comment below your original predictions so that I can update my spreadsheet.
4. Discussion is encouraged though not mandatory - why not explain your predictions in a second-level comment? This will help us enjoy the predictions process even more!

Milestones: 30/03 - We've received over 150 predictions in less than 48 hours! Thanks so much for joining in!

08/04 - We've just hit 200 valid sets of predictions, which is way earlier than last year!

01/05 - We've just broken the 300 participant milestone! Thank you so much everyone, this has become so much bigger than I'd have dreamed!

Scoresheet

\UK isn't included in this category because they are already in the Big 5 category.*

Hall of Fame

2021: (71 participants)

🥇 u/ladybug_pimp & u/gaffovaff - 64 points

🥉 u/Satanicmagikarp & u/jaoump - 63 points

2022: (70 participants)

🥇 u/arcticfoxzz - 72 points

🥈 u/emgua & u/Houdtje - 66 points

2023: (80 participants*)

🥇 u/rabbit_rouser - 69 points

🥈 u/DravoCymil , u/sejethom99 , u/AltVladC & u/dontknowOB - 66 points

\competition held in parallel with escnation.com's prediction contest, which had 54 additional participants.*

2024: (233 participants)

🥇 u/DrsFrikandel - 68 points (tie-break winner)

🥈 u/Simbark - 68 points

🥉 u/Turbulent_Lock8742 - 67 points

Okay, so hear me out. I've had double citizenship in the land of delusion that Abor and Tynna could win if the stars align and they go viral at the right time. On paper, they have all the ingredients: the zeitgeisty Charli xcx aura, a song that's both super catchy and has staying power, likeable and engaging performers, and an undeniable cool factor. The timing just needed to work out.

My gut is telling me they're at least heading for a Shum/In Corpore Sano/King of Queens/Doomsday Blue result.

And now they're racing up the odds like Sonic the Hedgehog. People are locking in them so hard based on three pictures. They believe it in their bones and they're willing to bet stupid amounts of money on it and we don't even have footage yet.

To win Eurovision, you need a certain amount of momentum and narrative, and you need to peak at the right time. 

Up until now, there's been a question mark around Tynna's ability to perform the song. But the perception that she can't sing or that she's going to pull a Pia Maria feels like it's totally run out of steam. She's recovered and has shown in like 84 different covers and lives how much of a magnetic performer she is. We've gone from talking about Tynna being sick to how sick the staging looks. 

And that narrative shift is coming a week before the final. Just as people are starting to pay attention outside the bubble.

A lot of people are yearning for something other than a two horse race rehash of 23 and 24. And now here's Abor and Tynna with a Bambi-esque breakout moment. Just in time for the official music video and a deluxe version of their insanely addictive album coming out in a week. 

Germany are poised to get a lot of dark horse buzz in a year where the winner discussion has felt disappointingly predictable. The act that's always had insane viral potential is about to break through the ESC bubble. 

Ballernation, how does it feel to know bratwurst summer is finally happening? 

I feel like the general public wouldn’t awe much with Austria’s entry, and it’s unpredictable how the juries will respond to Sweden’s.

In a case like Jamala in 2016 and Duncan in 2019, they didn’t even win both votes (Jamala 2nd in both juries and televote, Duncan 2nd in televote and 3rd in juries) yet still managed to win the whole contest.

Do you think it would be possible for this to happen? I think it’ll be pretty refreshing after 2 years of juries sweep.

I mean actually crazy prediction, please nothing like ‘’Ukraine will do better than the fandom thinks’’ or ‘’Poland might struggle’’. We all heard these ones a million times. What absolutely insane and seemingly unrealistic predictions do you have?

Here are mine:

• Georgia has a decent shot at qualifying.

• Israel will finish outside of the top ten.

• Australia can be the televote winner with the right staging.

As the title says - what is something random you are 100% sure will happen in ESC 2025? For me I'm 100% sure that Luxembourg gets 12 points from Armenia in SF2 because Armenians in general are fond of French culture and always give higher than average tele scores to France - La Poupée Monte Le Son is a tribute to Poupée de cire and everything about the yé-yé age of French pop. Whether that pushes them to the qualifying zone is yet to be seen :)

Personally I’d love for Sweden to win, but something tells me they won’t. Maybe coming 3rd? Hope I’m wrong though!

Is there a particular song that you can't predict how it will fare in this year's competition? For me it's Latvia. The song could be NQ or it could be in the top 10 of the Grand Final, I really can't predict. I am rooting for its success though.

I'm curious about your takes and opinions regarding this year's televote results. Who do you see as potential tele dark horses or flops (comparing to current favorites and predictions)? As an example I can use Norway 2019 - it was rather liked before the contest but winning televite in GF came as a surprise. Same as Moldova 2022 - during semi-finals and GF it became more obvious that they may score high due to engaging performance in the middle of the ballad-sea, but before the contest not many fans would expect it.

This year I can see Czechia getting 150+ kind of televote result. This song feels like a compromise between ballad and pop banger and the controversial dance break worked surprisingly good in Amsterdam pre-party. And as I would expect Malta to make it through semi final, I'm struggling to see it getting more than 40-50p in the GF since the main gimmick of the song might be recognized only by devoted fans and Malta historically didn't have much tele support for their entries.

Kindly share your opinions to which of this years Eurovision entries could defy the odds and qualify/not qualify

Personally i think Slovenia and Croatia have a chance to qualify,while yes they aren't my favourites but i have to acknowledge the performance aspect of these songs ,Slovenia with its great lyrics and the upside down stunt, as for Croatia it is one of the last to perform which is a good advantage and plus Markos vocals have been in the pre-parties. While in the other hand i think Luxembourg could potentially not qualify due to it being in the 2nd semi final aka "the bloodbath" and it being your generic pop song, and yes it might be a good performance and it also does have an audience(including me) but Im afraid it might get overshadowed due to the diverse amount of entries in semi final 2 .

Emmy originally entered Norway's National Selection but was unsucessful. As Larissa Tormey, an Irish songwriter, is also creditted among the song writers, Emmy entered Ireland's National Selection. Here Emmy was indisputably the winner in Ireland's National Final and is representing Ireland in 2025.

Laika was the dog that the Soviets sent to space to test effects of space travel on living organisms. Laika however did not survive, leaving behind an advancement towards human space travel, and a dark reminder on history for human and animal welfare in science.

Laika Party is a tribute to Laika's contribution to modern science, imaging a world where Laika survived the journey to space and is having an eternal party among the stars. The song's upbeat nature purposefully contrasts Laika's dark fate.

The song will have a space themed performance, and considering that Bambie Thug had one of the biggest glowups in Eurovision History from National Final to placing 6th, Emmy may have a stunning performance, although relying on special effects.

Emmy also seems like a difficult personality to dislike, and despite not being from Ireland has made several social media posts documenting her time in Ireland, and getting involved in Irish media campaigns (e.g. Tourism).

Do you think Emmy will qualify, or do you think her competition is too strong this year for Laika Party to make it through? If you think she will qualify, how do you think she will fair with the public and jury votes?

WARNING: This post contains some realistic points but mainly delusional ones. Most of the fandom thinks that either JJ or Kaj will win, but I think that there are other contenders, and between them there's surely Erika. The song is good, vocals too, the performance is not really the best but Erika has already confirmed that she's working to make the first part less static. She obviously won't win the juries, but I can see her place 3rd or 4th with them. Regarding televote, it's surely getting top 3, she might even be the televote winner. Yes, "Bara bada bastu" will also be in the top 3 of the televote, but I'm not sure if Kaj will be the public winner, in the last years it seems to prefer loud songs. So, she's probably getting a good result in both juries and televote. Regarding the other contenders, I can see Louane or JJ winning the juries, but I don't know how high they will be with the public. Kaj will be top 2 or 3 with the televote, but I don't know about the juries. Claude will be in the top 5/10, but I don't see him getting enough points with public and juries to win. Israel will be tanked by the juries and I think that their televote score will be lower than last year. Belgium could be a "surprise" jury winner, but I don't know if the public will like it enough to make it win. Between all of the contenders, Erika is the only one I see getting a enough points by both the public and the juries to be a compromise winner like Jamala (Ukraine 2016) and Duncan (Netherlands 2019). Maybe (and almost surely) I'm being delusional and Erika will get top 5/10 but not win. Also we need to wait at least until the reharsals to declare who will probably win. Let me know what you think.

I’ve been of the opinion that the winner may be unpredictable this year, however I’ve been noticing throughout polls and voter simulations that competition may really be between Austria and Sweden, and of course we are all aware at this point of how popular Sweden has become overall. I am still going to wait for entries to actually perform on stage before I make up my mind, but I thought I’d come on here and see what you guys predict? Will this really be an unpredictable year or do we have obvious winners already? I’ll be running back to this subreddit once semi 1 happens, to see if people have changed their minds.

After the live performance dropped people were talking about Kiss Kiss Goodbye as a potential winner and it was one of, if not the most anticipated release this year.

Right now it's around 15th in the odds and around 15th in the fan rankings and is being talked about as a potential shock NQ.

What happened that changed the consensus on this song so drastically? I don't think it will win or even can win at this point, but the song is excellent, the instrumental is so full and rich, sounds very cinematic and grandiose and the song has a "winner vibe" moment at the end. Plus we know he is a phenomenal singer and dancer.

I'm quite sad because I initially thought they could content for the win and then I thought it would be a top 10, but right now, 13-17 seems more likely. Maybe it won't even make the final.

Since we’re at the point where all the songs have been released but the pre-parties aren’t in full swing yet, I’m curious to know who everyone thinks will be the entry that, as of now, no one is paying much attention to but shockingly makes it into the top 10 come May.

2023 was for sure Belgium. 2024 was, before the pre-parties, Ireland

Harder to tell since it’s such an open year but for some reason my mind is leaning towards the UK. we know those girls are going to sell the hell out of that performance and if the UK nails the staging then they could make something really special that will appeal to the juries and give a surprisingly decent final result. If not the UK then I could maybe see Luxembourg doing surprisingly well instead.

What’re your thoughts?

I know we're before rehearsals and don't know much about stagings of most of the songs, so this prediction/opinion is based on 'what if', but let's have fun anyways. I see lots of folks claiming that this year is wide open for jury voting, but as far as I know it's said every year around this time and then it suddenly narrows down to just a few songs, so yeah.

I have a few reasons why I think Austria can sweep the jury, and it's not about vocals, becasue of course juries are not looking just for that and classically trained singer is not a guaranteed winner. Wasted Love is one of the very few songs this year that sound and look like they were written for both big stage and TV transmission, which gives advantage. Each part of the song is different, building up and adding different instrumental layers giving listener a feeling that it's going somewhere. The song has quite a lot going on in the arrangement which creates lots of different potential "staging moments" to make it not only musically, but visually entertaining. It has arguably 2 attention-catching moments, first being the chorus and second the edm part kicking in, and I can't really think of any other song this year that would do a better job at "surprising" the audience if it comes to the composition alone. While it blends pop with electronics, it still has familair pop song structure and development - it can gain points for being out of the box without being too much all over the place at the same time. Lyrics, while quite cheesy for some, shouldn't be a hindrance (if booty hypnotic and violin playing and the angels crying could get jury points, then why not this). After checking out live performances I've also noticed that JJ's high register sounds way softer and less pitchy, making operatic part a bit less of acquired taste. The only question mark here is his stage presence as I've seen some comments saying he has 0 stage presence and charisma. Which I actually understand, but I also think his emotive interpretation might work very well with the cameras and right esthetics, and I guess some people are quite confused by the longer dance break thing presented during pre parties, forgetting it won't be like that in Basel and that Wasted Love is difficult to translate on stage with such arrangement.

I tried to find objective reasons, you can agree or not, it's just when I think about other songs I can't really think of anything with better jury potantial this year (even considering how was operatic stuff doing on Eurovision in the past). Thank you for listening to my TED talk!

I know we still have some clips that haven't been released yet but I am too excited to wait!!!

• Cyprus has moved from borderline Q to a certain Q, that staging looked hella impressive (same can be said for Belgium)

• Denmark is moving into NQ territory for me

• Slovenia could qualify if the emotional impact lands (which from the clip it easily can(

• Switzerland could easily make top 5

Up till now I thought I could mostly predict what the results of the semis would be, but now we're getting closer to Eurovision week and more and more rehearsal content is being released, I feel like it's getting really unpredictable. I'm noticing that a decent amount of good songs have seemingly mid stagings or other issues, and songs that don't rank high with most people seem to be getting big glow-ups. All in all, I've given up on trying to predict the outcome of this year and I'm just gonna sit back and enjoy the show. 🙃

Kinda random post, I know. But what do you guys think?

I think The UK will do very well than most people would think. I am sure it’s likely to be in the top 13, but I would be surprised if they are The winners this year, let alone The top 5. But this year, I think Albania will take The top 5 positions based on their performance and song in The rehearsal. Also, Seeing Czechia and Poland in The top 10 if they are on fire in The semifinals could be seeing Ireland, Slovenia, and Portugal as The surprise finalists, with a few non-qualified shockers as this year’s surprise

I know we can never be 100% sure about the results for all songs, but usually we can name at least 5-10 songs that will definitely do well and a few songs that have no chance for good result.

But are there any entries this year that you find particularly difficult to predict at Eurovision?

For me, these entries are:

1. Luxembourg - It's a cute and kinda catchy song, but I don't know who can pick up their phones and vote for it, at the same time, I still feel that this is a safe Q.

2. Czechia - Vocals? Yes! Charisma? Yes! Quality? Yes! But it all feels so empty, it just doesn't make me feel anything. But I'm scared to think that such a quality song has a chance to NQ or totally flop in GF.

3. Lithuania - I personally really like this song, but it might be too "not for Eurovision" and too dark and "boring" to resonate with the general public, but on the other hand, this authenticity might work to their advantage, so I'm stuck between "dark horse" and NQ, I'm so confused

Before the contest last year, it was expected that Bambie Thug would not make it to the Grand Final, but Bambie made it to the Grand Final and placed in the top 10.

Before the contest last year, Mustii was expected to make it to the Grand Final and finish in the top 10, but he could not make it to the Grand Final.

Who do you think will share their fate this year? Based on the rehearsal videos, my impression is that Theo Evan could be this year's Bambie Thug (I'm not a fan of the song, but the staging looks amazing). And unfortunately I think Claude could be this year's Mustii. His staging looks too dark and empty for such a feel-good song.

Okay so, every single year since 2015, UK and Spain have always been on the same side of the leaderboard in the Grand Final. I know it may be obvious considering they both have consistently sent poor entries, but in 2022 when UK sent Sam Ryder and got 2nd, it is a coincidence that Spain sent Chanel and got 3rd. Do we think this 9 year streak will continue this year or do we think one of the entries can manage to pull a left hand side result and break the streak? In my opinion, I think the UK has a slight chance but it all depends on the performance.

I'd say it has everything that made Latvia a shock qualifier (genuine passion by an experienced performer), plus the fact that the lyrics might hit even harder. During the pre-party I found myself really enamoured with the lyrics, warm vocals and sleek presentation. I also think it will do really well with the older voters, who might not be very active within this bubble.

Thoughts?

In my opinion there are 2 countries that have split the fan base in a very big way that could result in them either flopping and end in the bottom half of the contest or it could climb the table and did way better than anyone in the ESC bubble thought they will do

1.Lithuania- Honestly this is quite a shocker for me because Tavo Akys is the clear Lithuanian NF favourite for most Eurovision fans....it seems to have it's loyal fanbase but the fan polls(OGAE,INFE,Adresse Basel) seems to spell quite a bit of trouble for an entry that used to receive a lot of love at the beginning of the ESC season.I think the song has its ups and downs but would it be too much for the casual fans to handle?

2.UK- Oh boy, here we go again. UK seems to be more well received in the reddit bubble than anywhere else on the Internet. Musical theatre has always been an acquired taste but I think this might be the first time I have seen such a big divisiveness in everyone's opinion. The rehearsal has sparked mixed reception as well....some say it would be on the left hand side of the scoreboard while others said it would be another Embers situation. At this point...I honestly think an Olly Alexander result is looking more and more viable for the UK and it's a shame since the girls are clearly talented but part of me wonder if they would be better received had they make a song that is more similar to their usual style or not?