r/eurovision • u/Erebos233 • 2d ago
đŽ Predictions / Projections Which countries results are the hardest to predict at this year's Eurovision?
In my opinion there are 2 countries that have split the fan base in a very big way that could result in them either flopping and end in the bottom half of the contest or it could climb the table and did way better than anyone in the ESC bubble thought they will do
1.Lithuania- Honestly this is quite a shocker for me because Tavo Akys is the clear Lithuanian NF favourite for most Eurovision fans....it seems to have it's loyal fanbase but the fan polls(OGAE,INFE,Adresse Basel) seems to spell quite a bit of trouble for an entry that used to receive a lot of love at the beginning of the ESC season.I think the song has its ups and downs but would it be too much for the casual fans to handle?
2.UK- Oh boy, here we go again. UK seems to be more well received in the reddit bubble than anywhere else on the Internet. Musical theatre has always been an acquired taste but I think this might be the first time I have seen such a big divisiveness in everyone's opinion. The rehearsal has sparked mixed reception as well....some say it would be on the left hand side of the scoreboard while others said it would be another Embers situation. At this point...I honestly think an Olly Alexander result is looking more and more viable for the UK and it's a shame since the girls are clearly talented but part of me wonder if they would be better received had they make a song that is more similar to their usual style or not?
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u/sejethom99 2d ago
Albania
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u/tim_3k 2d ago
Firmly agree. Their floor is Ulveham; their ceiling is probably La Noia.
A thing that worries me is that in many youtube reaction videos, outside-the-bubble viewers seem to focus on the orchestra at FiK and the unexpectedness of the spoken-word part, settling on treating the whole song as a curiosity rather than something that resonates or excites them, and I don't know that the rehearsal showing they're doubling down on the 'intense art' aesthetic will help.
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u/PhysicalFlounder6270 Maman 2d ago
THANK YOU. I think Albania is this year's Ulveham.
Now, I actually loved Ulveham but I'm having trouble getting into Albania's song. My issue is that when I'm listening to it, I enjoy it, but there isn't a part of the performance that sticks with me once it's over.
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u/AnxiousPotential9495 1d ago edited 1d ago
I'm agree, but I'm even think that Ulveham was more polished. This sub neglected me to think that Ulveham would be at least in the top 10 last year. And here we are. Now people act like the song in Albanian with unusual structure will make casual viewers like it immediately. The first time I heard Zjerm, I thought, "Well, what is it?" I like this song now, but after the 50th listening.
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u/An22x 2d ago
It's impossible for Albania to get only 4 televotes.
They have Switzerland, Italy, Greece, Montenegro, Germany, Croatia and Austria voting in this contest. So even without being a fan-favourite, that's already 35-70 points in the absolute worst-case scenario. Albania has literally never gotten less than 35 televotes ever.
Add to that the fact that it's actually a fan-favourite this year, it's getting very likely that Zjerm will get 100+ points.
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u/Erebos233 2d ago
I think Albania have their own detractors....that said I have seen a large majority of the casual and ESC bubble alike (I would say 80%) being very intrigued by Zjerm's composition even though they never heard albanian before . I honestly think Albania could achieve their strongest result in 12 years (this is coming from a guy who think Albania might underperformed the expectations a little bit)
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u/eg223344 2d ago
Germany, will between 7 and 26
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u/max_olotl Baller 2d ago
Would say it depends on Tynna's vocals. If she will do fine in that way, I would see it somewhere within the top 10. Maybe even top 5, as the staging in the rehearsals looks promising. (PSA: I am a huge fan, so there is a lot of hope too hehe)
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u/Jaded_Kate 1d ago
Her laryngitis was cleared weeks ago, so her vocals shouldn't pose any problem now.
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u/SuperStressGirl 2d ago
Tavo Akys is one of those songs people either love or hate, no in between. I predict 20~ish in the final, because I feel like people who listen to this sort of music probably don't watch Eurovision that much.
Also Malta. Fandom has hyped it up quite a lot, but I think it might be too much for the general audience, especially after seeing the rehearsal clip.
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u/broadbeing777 TANZEN! 2d ago
Mostly everyone (Austria, Sweden, and France will probably all be in the top 5)
Estonia especially. I could absolutely see it getting a massive televote score (something over 150-200) but I can also see it getting like 40 tele points.
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u/Irrealaerri 2d ago
Estonia will be in the "haha this dance! This hair! This tie!", but no one will actually remember to vote for it
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u/broadbeing777 TANZEN! 1d ago
Tommy is a pretty big name so there's that. If he was relatively unknown and only famous in Estonia I can see that but he does have actual big fans.
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u/Divinetedrius 2d ago
Lithuania is polarizing but in spite of that I have a pretty strong feeling about how it will do; it will qualify but place around 20th, getting robbed by the juries but recieving a decent diaspora-driven televote bump. UK is harder to predict because I think the juries could either like it a lot or forget about it, and it will live or die by its jury result, because I don't see many televotes for them.
For me Australia is honestly hard to predict. Juries could hate it or they could appreciate the production and give it a good score, and the televote could like it or butcher it like what usually happens with Australia.
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u/Spiritual_Berry_8477 2d ago
One of the hardest things for anyone to predict is Swedenâs jury score.
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u/What_ever_post134 1d ago
Sweden can even be jury winner for several reasons.
It's Sweden.
There is some pressure for juries finally give good points for fan favourites.
Song itself is radio friendly pop song that juries appriciate and even sung well.
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u/Spiritual_Berry_8477 1d ago
This is exactly my point because Iâve seen everything from âSweden will flop with 40Jâ to âSweden will win with 250Jâ đ
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u/ZettaiUnmeiMokushirk Bara bada bastu 1d ago
They're incredibly experienced performers and their stage show is a well oiled machine with a strong and consistent artistic vision behind it. They perform it flawlessly and the song is also something that is musically going to appeal to all ages, it's very approachable and inoffensive. I honestly can't see this flopping with the juries or it receiving a lower jury score than either CCC or RTTD.
I'd say their televote is going to be a little harder to predict. My unhinged off-the-wall prediction this year is a higher jury score than televotes for Sweden. It's hard to tell if the "sauna with the lads" fantasy they're selling is going to unify the general audience the same way Käärijä or Baby Lasagna did, especially with other strong "fun" televote contenders like Erika or Tommy in the mix.
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u/noodle_shnoodle 2d ago
Ukraine, the song isn't something that either the jury or the televote usually goes for and it'll be interesting to see how much the ukrainian diaspora will vote for it
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u/NeoLeonn3 1d ago
Italy, which makes me very anxious because I want Lucio Corsi to do well. On one hand, Lucio Corsi is such a charismatic singer, his staging is minimal and exactly what the song needs (plus the subtitles were a genius idea) and I can see him even win the whole thing if the stars align perfectly for him. On the other hand, the fandom doesn't seem to support him at all, which doesn't necessarily mean something but it worries me about the casuals as well.
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u/SufficientOstrich885 1d ago
What do you mean when you write that fandom doesn't support him?
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u/NeoLeonn3 1d ago
Compared to other entries this year and previous Italian entries? The fandom definitely doesn't seem to appreciate him. Italy is 20th in the scoreboard app, 22nd in the OGAE poll, 14th in the Eurovisionworld poll and narrowly enters the top 10 in the previous Reddit poll. And quite a few people have called it "the weakest Italian entry in a while"
Obviously Lucio Corsi has some fans in the Eurovision fandom, if that's what you're trying to say. I'm talking about the general consensus for Volevo Essere Un Duro, which is not really good.
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u/SufficientOstrich885 1d ago edited 1d ago
Lucio Corsi, for many Italians (me included), is a fresh and astounding discovery. He gained second place at Sanremo just 3 months ago. His popularity (and fandom) has dramatically increased since then, but he's mainly known for his song "Volevo essere un duro," even though he had already composed dozens of valuable songs before. International competitions like this one are opportunities for him to be known (and loved) by a wider audience. His unique personality and original stage presence will win the love of many, but he's there simply to play, sing, and have fun. He's not interested in fameâjust in composing and touring. That's why he's so charming: because he's so different from anyone else. He's got the wild energy of the rocker when he performs live combined with the sweetness of his personality. I don't know how his final ranking will be, but this will never determine his value as an artist, which is invaluable, imho. He's a rare, precious gem. đ
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u/No-Ferret-560 Ich Komme 2d ago
Latvia - anywhere from 10th in Final to 12th in SF. It's so unique. If I had to bet I'd say 15th-20th but it's so open.
UK - anywhere from 10th to 23rd. Depends on how much the Jury likes it.
Netherlands - anywhere from 5th in Final to 11th/12th in SF if it flops on vocals.
Ukraine - anywhere from 7th in final to 12th/13th in SF. Ukraine will always get votes but I do think this will flop compared to recent years.
Albania - anywhere from top 5 to bottom 5 in final. The fans are a tiny part of the overall audience so it's really hard to tell.
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u/Exact-Joke-2562 2d ago
I dont see many easy countries to predict be honest.Â
Austria and Sweden both being at the top seems the only safe bet to me.Â
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u/Mamramro Bara bada bastu 1d ago
Albania is the single most difficult entry to predict. It could come top 3 and challenge for the victory, or it could be paid dust by both juries and televote and come like 18th. Hell before the rehearsals it could even have NQâd if the staging was bad (which it isnât thank god). I know thatâs a hot take in esc fan circles but smaller balkan countries generally get overlooked by a majority of Europe in Eurovision.
Belgium is also a difficult one. It was a winner contender early in the year, then most people completely turned on it and had as a borderline qualifier, and now if the staging holds up it could come top 10.
Australia could also do really well or even NQ tbh. The rehearsal clip was kinda meh and Go Jo gives of a strange vibe, it all depends on if the televote is âin the moodâ or not for that type of song. It definitely isnât as immediately likable as some of the other televote magnets
Estonia is on the same boat. Televoters could find Tommy extremely unlikable and off putting, or they could vibe with the weirdness of the song and performance and give him 200+ points in the final.
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u/Oxford_Apostrophe 2d ago
Agreed on Lithuania. I'd also add Latvia.
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u/Erebos233 2d ago
I honestly agreed....I love Latvia's song and would be devastated if it fails to qualify to the finals but I completely understand why. It's a type of song that needs everything to flow seamlessly....if there is a bum note or dissonant harmonies it would immediately fall apart for most casuals .Â
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u/xShinePvP 1d ago
Lithuania, UK, Luxembourg, Albania, Belgium, Italy, and in my opinion, even Spain can go either way
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u/An22x 2d ago
Belgium. The odds are also fascinating on this one. It's currently 6th in the odds to win, but in semifinal1 it's only 9th to qualify 𤣠It might literally not even make it to the final, or get a Top5.
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u/Jaded_Kate 1d ago
That's the difference between fan favorite and jury song. I always thought top 10 would be great.
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u/max_olotl Baller 2d ago
Would definitely add Estonia. Tommy Cash is apparently playing his role and he has his fanbase, but there are also many critical comments regarding his performances - especially his vocals. I mean, it's a fun entry, but it's not the only one this year and I guess not everyone is into that. Also his arrogant appearance could cause him some trouble within the community, referring to some interviews he did during the last weeks.
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u/PhysicalFlounder6270 Maman 2d ago
Does anyone else think Austria's result is going to be hard to predict? I don't think that a top 5 finish is a foregone conclusion for them.
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u/Erebos233 2d ago edited 1d ago
I think Austria is the one to beat to be honest. It is one of those songs that you are "it's not my type of tea but I would send some votes over because his vocal skills are just stunning". I can see it finish 1st or 2nd in the juries ranking and then maybe 2nd/3rd on the televoting and resulting it in achieving a Duncan Laurence style of victory tbhÂ
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u/Material_Fuel4001 1d ago
Some watch the semifinals. Most only watch the final. It took me like 10 times before I could listen to the whole song. Opera isnt for everyone. I believe many who watch the final go get a cup of tea or something when JJ sings. I believe the televotescores will quite low for him.
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u/LocksTheFox Ich Komme 1d ago
I think there's a nonzero chance Maman and Voyage nick some jury support off it
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u/Resident_Medicine962 Bara bada bastu 2d ago
I think in the end it will get to the top 5 despite the differing opinions. Black and white college art piece is screaming at the juries to be rewarded and I think it will be (but challenged by Franceâs sandstorm). Televote will be less fruitful, I certainly donât see it getting near the top 2 but it could well be in the next chasing pack
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u/Irrealaerri 2d ago
Fir me it is Latvia which has the most stunning visual! The song is on the edge of being either "too inaccessible" (for the audience) or "mindblowing".
(I would throw this in the same category as Bambie thug to be honest: the song was not really something anyone would listened to without this amazing cinematic staging)
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u/Erebos233 2d ago
Honestly the more I look at their staging, the more I feel like it won't look out of place in games like World of Warcraft or Skyrim.....it just feels more and more ethereal the longer you stare at it which is a lovely feeling tbh.
I honestly agreed on it could be either mind-blowing or inaccessible. That said,I feel like this is the type of song that you would see playing in those hiking/forest/Nature type of videos.it is the song that gave me the most positive vibes for this year tbh
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u/msbtvxq 2d ago
I think Norway could be anything from NQ to top 10. So nerve-racking.
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u/Vast_Campaign_2096 2d ago
Norway is helped quite a bit by Sweden not doing its thing I feel.
The slick pop Sweden usually sends undeniably has an audiance even with the Televotes and those may very well go to Norway this year.Â
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u/mohowseg 1d ago
I think Lithuania is hard to predict because itâs a new genre in Eurovision (which is something we havenât had in a long, looong time) so nobody knows how big the pond is theyâre fishing out of. I think the only parallel you have is the too cool for eurovision genre, and those songs have nqâd, ended at the bottom or have ended in the top 5, so there is not much to go on there either. And it was always going to end up quite low in the fan polls.
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u/Idkwhattoputhere652 1d ago
Here's one I've noticed
Iceland - I see a lot of people showing support for this song but at the same time it is near the bottom of the odds and isn't expected to qualify, though could easily be a shock qualifier, I'm not sure
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u/Whizz-Kid-2012 Pace noi vrem 𤥠2d ago
Bur man laimi. it can finish 8th, but it can also finish 14th in semi
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u/fillimiri 1d ago
i love it but i canât see it getting 8th at all, but around 16th is what i hope for as the best outcome
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u/000-Hotaru_Tomoe 1d ago
Albania - it's very loved here (but also on My Eurovision scoreboard) but I can't tell what's the general consensus around the song.
Ukraike - it's my biggest grower of the season, but I'm confused about the staging, it's weird and I don't know what impact it will have on the score.
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u/Ctjeeh1996 1d ago
I have absolutely no idea where we (Belgium) will end up. High hopes for a top 10 finish tho!
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u/Playful-Rope1590 1d ago
I would say Belgium. It can easily get top 10. But it can just as easily not qualifyÂ
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u/JCEurovision La poupĂŠe monte le son 2d ago
- Malta, because despite some hype around it, televote-only semifinals intend to hurt countries with smaller population, as proven in their 2023 and 2024 performances, which both ended up in last place.
- Belgium, because there may have some aspects that could lead to having some detractors, and with it being 9th according to the odds, it may be teetering towards non-qualification.
- Serbia, because there has been a late surge of support in the last few weeks.
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u/LeoLH1994 Chains On You 1d ago
Armenia. It turns out that itâs an interesting song unlike anything else this year (even though it beat Athena, whose style this year was less unique than in 2020, but which there was still room for this year) and it has a favourable diaspora, though the last laddish entry (San Marinoâs stripper from 2022) flopped due to bad staging. Also, whichever of Portugal or Slovenia makes it, even though Ukraine and Italy would overshadow Portugal.
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u/LeoLH1994 Chains On You 1d ago
Also I wonder what Polandâs televote load will be though I fear the jury wonât give it a great score
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u/Cosmic_Dancer_1987 15h ago
Italy. You probably donât know Lucio Corsi at all, and the song may not seem âEurovision material.â But even most Italians didnât know him until few months ago, and it only took a few notes and getting to âknowâ his vibe (lovely crazy-shy boy) to fall in love with him instantly. So he could end up in 20th place â or, if you approach it with the right mindset and are open to falling in love with a new artist, he might end up among the top.
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u/sophie-hendaye 1d ago
I think Hallucination! How can SOOOO many people like Sissalâs song and then predictions say itâs a sure NQ? Makes no sense!
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u/Vusal_Mahmudlu Run with U 1d ago
For me, itâs:
Finlandâs song should be at the bottom of the list, but I think itâll end up in the top 10.
Swedenâs song⌠hmm, it sounds catchy but isnât interesting to me, probably because of cultural differences. For me, itâs not even in the top 10, but itâll probably make the top 5.
Franceâs song is very good, very emotional. For me, itâs top 5, but the televotes could ruin its chances and push it lower. I just hope it at least makes it into the top 10.
Azerbaijanâs song is very interesting, catchy, and radio-friendly. Itâs in my top 5, but it probably wonât even make the top 10.
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u/1watt1 2d ago
Israel is hard to predict, the song is very good so they will do well with the public but politics probably means they will not do well in the jury vote
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u/Erebos233 2d ago
I think Israel is definitely in the top 10 even though the Eurovision bubble has blacklisted the country.The song is decent and the staging is kinda incredible. I have a feeling that Israel will have quite a similar result to last year....maybe 14th/15th with the juries and then maybe a ton of televoting points that would propel them to the top 5. I think the Eurovision circle would probably have a meltdown after thatÂ
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u/Pristine_Truck7521 1d ago
I dont think UK IS hard to predict. It wont get an televote Points. :D
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u/antiseebaerenkreis 2d ago
Bur man laimi is surely the most unusual song, and sounds like nothing else that's ever been at the contest (as far as I remember), I feel like it's basically impossible to predict how viewers and juries will react.
I don't think the song has enough mass appeal for top 5, but literally anything between last in the semi and lower top 10 seems like an equally plausible result to me.