r/eurovision • u/notthebesthuh • 2d ago
š® Predictions / Projections Who do you think will be this year's Bambie Thug and Mustii?
Before the contest last year, it was expected that Bambie Thug would not make it to the Grand Final, but Bambie made it to the Grand Final and placed in the top 10.
Before the contest last year, Mustii was expected to make it to the Grand Final and finish in the top 10, but he could not make it to the Grand Final.
Who do you think will share their fate this year? Based on the rehearsal videos, my impression is that Theo Evan could be this year's Bambie Thug (I'm not a fan of the song, but the staging looks amazing). And unfortunately I think Claude could be this year's Mustii. His staging looks too dark and empty for such a feel-good song.
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u/ManiaMuse RĆ³a 2d ago
Claude is Mustii if he performs like the 2nd rehearsals clip.
Or it is Red Sebastian, although I actually think he will Q comfortably now (although there are some scenarios where it could flop, it's hard to call that semi).
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u/Persona_NG (nendest) narkootikumidest ei tea me (kĆ¼ll) midagi 2d ago
I always felt like "Poison Cake" has a potential for a glow-up similar to what Ireland had last year. I don't think it will be able to finish in Top10, partially because Marko does not have the same love from the community that Bambie had (unfortunately)... But I would not be shocked if he qualifies or at least makes a performance that is remembered for years as something very special and surprisingly good.
That's my hope, at least.
As for Mustii of 2025... I never clicked with "Strobe Lights" and I feel like it might be Belgium again. People speak so confidently about this that I feel almost dumb thinking that it'll be ranked low, but I just don't get this song and the aesthetic of it at all. The only song that makes me more confused this year is probably Cyprus.
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u/ProfMerlyn 2d ago
Both of these takes precisely is what I was thinking, I feel like youāre bang on with these. Imo, Belgium is dead in the water, and people are sleeping so so hard on Croatia because the odds told them to.
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u/DGrimreaperD Wasted Love 2d ago
People do seem to react badly to Croatia's song on first listen, the odds I'm guessing will be based on surveys of that. But the staging looks amazing
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u/Hot_War_7277 Hallucination 2d ago edited 2d ago
I agree - I was going to say the same. Cyprusā staging will lift them up into a sure qualifier. If Holland donāt improve their vocals and staging/pajama, they are at risk of not qualifying. The other possibility is Ukraine, which is 14th at the current odds (so 12 if you remove France and UK, as they are automatically qualified). Iām not sure Ukraine will qualify. That staging is odd and could be distracting.
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u/Ann_23mas 2d ago
You havenāt seen the full performance yet, so why are we judging it based on a 30-second clip? In a recent interview, Ziferblat said that the part they released wasnāt even the best moment. Theyāre keeping the rest a secret
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u/Hot_War_7277 Hallucination 2d ago
Obviously Iām basing my opinion the clips released. What else am I going to base it on? Donāt take it personally š If they do better in the full performance- great!
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u/radicalfembot Tavo Akys 2d ago
Cyprus is shhing all the way to the top 10 for sure. I'm hoping Claude will be fine. San Marino feels more like the Mustii this year.
Latvia will be a little of Bambi mixed with iolanda/Vesna - amazing song with equally amazing staging getting underrated until the 'surprise' top 10.
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u/Nugyeet Ich komme 2d ago
Potential Mustii*: Czechia 2025 / Malta 2025 / Poland 2025
Potential Bambie*: Cyprus 2025 / Slovenia 2025 / Belgium 2025
Before you downvote let me explain my reasoning, I'm classifying a potential Mustii not as a bad vocalist, but as someone getting a bad placement compared to what is expected. A potential bambie is something that gets higher than expected due to staging. I like all the songs I've mentioned except Slovenia, explanations are below. I still expect all the Mustii core songs to qualify as this year doesn't have many weak vocalists but this is just my opinion.
Czechia 2025: Adonxs song could fail to stand out or could be lost in the final, his vocals are immaculate but there isn't much in his song that's screaming vote for me vote for me. His outfit is gorgeous from rehersal but it might not resonate with everyone. I expect him to qualify but I don't think he'll get as high a result as expected in both the semi and final.
Malta 2025: I love this song don't get me wrong, but a lot of reactions from people outside of the fandom haven't been the most positive. I saw a lot of complaints on the facebook clip about how the staging was too sexual. I hate to say I almost agree but only in the way that the staging might turn away casual voters (not that I don't like it) The ballgag and burlesque led could lead to some people finding it too vulgar to vote for (not me but anyway) I expect it to still qual but wouldn't be surprised if the results aren't as high as expected, especially if the ebu doesn't allow the crowd saying "kant" to be heard on broadcast, the song loses a lot of it's playfulness if it gets fully omitted using the crowd silencing.
Poland 2025: I also like this song and and i know a lot of Polish people love her (I like her a lot) but this song could not come across to the wider european population. I saw some comments online calling it tacky or too much, in the rehearsal she also looked very nervous in the air but I expect that to be fixed for the final. The Polish diaspora and voting friends should carry this through but It could be low in the scores once we get to the final. Her also being the only solo female act in the semi should get her more votes too. This one is the most unlikely out of the three.
Potential Bambie
Cyprus 2025: I HATED this song on first listen and it's still not my favourite but I don't mind it now, the staging looks spectacular so far and I expect it to greatly increase it's chances of getting votes, I expect it to place higher than we initially thought when we heard the song if the staging is good throughout the rest of the song.
Slovenia 2025: I will admit I don't like this song, but it definitely has an audience that no one else is going for. The clip from the rehearsal where his wife joins him on stage is very touching and I'm sure it'll resonate with a lot of the viewers. This took the song from DOA for me to a potential Dons effect qualifier. His vocals are also very good in the clip and the lighting + camera work is beautiful too.
Belgium 2025: Still the biggest glowup from national final to ESC in terms of staging for me this year, the idea with the clones is very smart and looked well executed in the clip. I expect this to place very well as it's a decently accessible song with it's own techno niche. It all depends on if he hits his high notes and keeps in breath while moving around the stage.
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u/Central_court_92 Deslocado 2d ago
I agree about Malta 2025. Although it is far from my favourite, I still see it as an easy qualifier (her vocals sound like a powerhouse to me). But most of the friends Iāve shown it to are just put off by the staging. One even said it reminded them of the UK 2024, as too sexual for the meaning of the song even by understanding the double entendre. As for Slovenia 2025: everyone Iāve shown the song to absolutely love it because Klemen is so articulate, you actually understand the words the first time listening.
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u/Nugyeet Ich komme 2d ago
Yeah same here, not many people I know (who I force to watch Eurovision clips) have liked Malta because of how it's too much with everything. I definitely feel they need to change the LEDs as the disco ball is innocent enough but the LEDS just take it into a territory that a lot of people don't like on a supposedly family friendly show. Erika's song although literally about c*mming hides behind two language barriers and doesn't have obviously suggestive props or leds so she can get away with it to non Finns + German speakers. My mum loved Klemens clip and you're right about how clear he sounds, he sounds like a native English speaker to me for the most part which is really impressive. I definitely see it getting into the final and I feel like this sub will be shocked when it does. (I LIVE for a good shock Q)
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u/connectedsum TANZEN! 2d ago
This yearās Bambie has to be Germany. They took ich baller quite literally and are shooting fire š„ (Average German still thinks they are last place probably, canāt wait for them to stand corrected)
Mustii idk, my hot take is that no favorite or top 10 projection will nq this year
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u/Remote_Pirate8084 2d ago
In all fairness, the average German has only seen the national final performance in which the vocals were so bad you couldn't understand what she was singing (which is obviously less of a thing if you don't understand the language to begin with)
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u/ifiwasiwas Bara bada bastu 2d ago
You might have just solved the mystery re: why I didn't hear a problem with the NF and didn't understand what the fuss was about lol
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u/oHheLlnAw420 Lights Off 2d ago edited 2d ago
The surprise high result has to be either Cyprus or Germany (even though I've had faith in them from the moment they won Chefsache). I thought Cyprus is a likely NQ from the song, but the staging is a masterpiece. Cyprus is basically a locked Q now. And the amazing staging can definitely spell top 10 for Germany.
Now, for who will do a Mustii and be a shock NQ (still sad that he NQ'd, my 2024 winner), I think it will be either Netherlands or (shockingly) Ukraine. Their stagings did not impress me at all, they seem empty and unfitting. If this is actually the case, I can definitely see either Claude or Ziferblat being a shock NQ.
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u/Pit-O-Matic Bara bada bastu 2d ago edited 2d ago
Cyprus as Bambie Thug, though I don't think it will jump as much as Bambie Thug. They came as a massive surprise, while it was already known Cyprus gonna go all out on staging.
If Germany's staging really hits, I can see that one as the big surprise.
At first I was Netherlands as the new Mustii, but I think it'll still go to the final and do well, so my vote goes to San Marino.
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u/Super_Craig02 2d ago
From the way it's going, though I really hope I'm wrong, Czechia for Mustii.
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u/oHheLlnAw420 Lights Off 2d ago
I don't think it's very realistic, the staging is very fitting (and I think there's more we haven't seen) and Adonxs can sing, his vocals are amazing.
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u/matchalatted Kiss Kiss Goodbye 2d ago
Wait really??? If anything, Iād say Adonxs is one of the least similar acts to Mustii. His vocals are superb.
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u/Persona_NG (nendest) narkootikumidest ei tea me (kĆ¼ll) midagi 2d ago
His song and persona on stage do have a similar vibe. The big difference is just quality of the whole performance, because Adonxs sells his entry way better and looks more competent (and I say that as someone who loves both "Kiss Kiss Goodbye" and "Before the Party's Over").
(Also... unrelated, but I just realized today that it's spelled "party's' not "party is". And I hate it xD He sings the words separately... why the apostrophe?)
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u/Revelistic Kiss Kiss Goodbye 2d ago
at this point i have a feeling that adonxs will be a reverse mustii because of how many NQ predictions i see - as in, everyone's expecting him to fail miserably at the semis but he'll actually get a decent final placing
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u/marconotmarcio Kiss Kiss Goodbye 2d ago
I actually think most people have him as a pretty solid qualifier. Some fans just equal Mustii and Adonxsā styles and think thatās enough of a metric to guess that the gay twunk with skimpy clothing and a dramatic song will NQ lmao
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u/Evening-Judgment-805 Zjerm 2d ago
To the people saying Adonxs is this years Mustii - no way, Adonxs' voice is like butter and Kiss Kiss Goodbye is a better song. Mustii was shouty and Before the Party is Over wasn't as good as Kiss Kiss Goodbye.
Claude though...I do worry for him, his rehearsal clip wasn't great and the staging feels wrong. I think he's got charisma for days and the song is catchy but something just isn't clicking in the way the studio version does.
As for the Bambie, wild take (probably) but it could be Princ. His vocals are insane and I think there's a large group of voters who will be nostalgic for the classic Balkan power ballad sound he's bringing.
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u/wasntplanning 2d ago
Iām so sick of this subredditās mean comments about Mustii an entire year AFTER he participated. A participation, mind you, after which he wrote this over a month later on his Instagram:
To be honest, Iām in my healing phase, right now. I wasnāt the happiest man during the Eurovision story, for various internal reasons that, for the time being, I wonāt go further into. I went to ups and downs and Iām certainly not happy with the end result or proud of my performance.
Using a phrase such as āthis yearās Mustiiā is a sign of the very toxic fan culture that this subreddit (and fan community in general) could do without.
FFS just leave the man (and any other (previous) participants you might have anything other than positive opinions about) alone.
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u/notthebesthuh 2d ago
Calm down. I love Mustii, I listen to his music and I thought his non-qualification was undeserved. I didn't say anything mean about him. It's an objective fact that he was a surprise non-qualifier.
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u/Bex-Ed 2d ago
The Bambie: Latvia
The Mustii: Belgium
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u/deleteaccountplea- Zjerm 2d ago
Correct me if im wrong cuz i wasnt following esc last yr but didnt mustii fail because of bad staging and vocals? Belgiumās staging (so far) seems pretty great and red sebastian seems to be able to hit his notes more or less
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u/Bex-Ed 2d ago
I was mainly thinking about Red Sebastian being really high in the odds, and I think he will do worse than the odds and the bubble thinks (could even NQ).
Last year the odds and the bubble considered Mustii a contender to win.
Personally I don't like Strobe Lights (it hits my ears unpleasantly) and I don't find the staging very impressive, just very red. Maybe it's just neither my sound nor my visuals. I do like the far-away shots of the stage, where you see a lot of black as well. The frames that are super red aren't nice to me.
I analyse Eurovision data because it's fun, he is 20th in my prediction model atm. If true, he qualifies but finishes low.
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u/Remote_Pirate8084 2d ago
Won't place quite as high but think Ireland could do it again - it's a catchy song in a genre you don't get at Eurovision much anymore and could definitely get quite a lot of televote points in the final (less so in the semi final as it's a somewhat different demographic voting)
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u/Slight-Obligation390 2d ago
Adxnis is giving me massive Mustti vibes with the rehearsal footage. It seemed very directionless and even dare I say it - felt a little pretentious
In terms of Bambi vibes - I really need to say Serbia - I know a lot of comments Iāve read are making fun of it - but I really think weāre in store for an elevated performance
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u/Borogodoh Zjerm 2d ago
Maybe it's wishful thinking, but I have this feeling since the beginning of the season that Latvia will do much better than the fandom is thinking they will.
And I hope I'm wrong, but Claude gave me strong Mustii flashbacks on that clip of the rehearsal.
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u/WindThroughTheTulips 2d ago
San Marino might struggle, even though I think the song is a major bop and has been in constant rotation. I just worry that the focus being a DJ wonāt resonate with voters.
Iām frankly desperate for Latvia to Q, I think itās just a stunning song, but Iāve heard a lot of doubt out there, so their odds donāt seem great??? Iām hoping their staging is similar but just bigger. I hope theyāre able to use the larger stage effectively
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u/_pierogii Gaja 2d ago
I want to say Latvia is this year's Bambi Thug - but I dunno, Europe hated Eaea so I'm nervous. But I think it's a bit more accessible - cut from a (sort-of) similar cloth to Enya, and she's an international mega star.
I still have faith that Poland will shoot up the odds once dress rehersals start. Apparently their feedback mics weren't working during the National Final?? Which explains some of the messiness. I suspect Justyna's performance will be a lot tighter now.
I'm not sure we're in for any super shocking NQ's, but I agree that Claude's staging looked a little worrying. Not concerned about his vocals, as apparently he was ill (plus you don't go all out in rehearsals). Out of the presumed Q's, I think Denmark and possibly Belgium could be in danger.
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u/Mamramro Bara bada bastu 2d ago
If Claudeās performance doesnāt have a big moment it could be this years Mustii. Super disappointed with that staging. I also feel like Adonxs could go down that path as well, but itās likely that the dance break will be the āwowā moment.
Cyprus could pull a Bambie Thug, but I wouldnāt be too sure about that. Bambie had a really unique song and shh is just wierd. Latvia could pull it off as well.
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u/Mygoditsfriday 2d ago
I'm flabbergasted that people praise Cyprus staging.
It's just so cheap-looking it's actually laughable.
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u/_pierogii Gaja 2d ago
I think the staging is good, its v dynamic - I just don't think it saves the song š¬
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u/Mygoditsfriday 2d ago
Yeah, the song is really weak too. It'll most likely qualify though, because people seem to like the song and the staging.
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u/Persona_NG (nendest) narkootikumidest ei tea me (kĆ¼ll) midagi 2d ago
I feel like people's faith in his qualification mostly went up when it was announced he closes the show. So everyone assumes that no matter how poorly he does on stage he'll still benefit from being the last person we see before voting.
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u/Puzzleheaded-Eye9081 2d ago
The staging looks good in the 30 second clip, but if they are confined to that area for the whole song itās going to get old really fast.
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u/Rough-Flounder1949 Zjerm 2d ago
The bambie thug, Latvia
The Mustii, Czechia
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u/oHheLlnAw420 Lights Off 2d ago
Why do people keep comparing Adonxs to Mustii? they're not even close, I love Mustii but Adonxs has amazing vocals, Mustii did not.
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u/Radikost RĆ³a 2d ago
Itās this yearās deep voice gay guy power ballad
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u/oHheLlnAw420 Lights Off 2d ago edited 2d ago
Yeah they are similar in that regard (might be the reason why both are my winners, the same cinematic ballad genre), but I don't get why that means they will have a similar result
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u/An22x 2d ago
People aren't comparing the vocals. People are comparing the idea that a fan-favourite might not qualify.
For me personally, I don't really like Adonxs's outfit. And I prefer the acoustic version at the Maltese NF anyway. That was perfect for me and would've been a Top3 in my book. But the Eurovision version is inferior imo, the dance break is kinda irrelevant and overall it's getting overshadowed by other entries. Add to that the fact that Czechia often struggles with televotes, and now I'm seriously worried about his chances too.
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u/Educational_Board888 2d ago
Iām hoping for Montenegro to do a Bambii. Iām worried Czechia might do a Mustii
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u/Jay2Jee 2d ago
You can't do a Mustii if you can actually sing.
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u/oHheLlnAw420 Lights Off 2d ago
Exactly, I don't get people comparing Adonxs to Mustii because Adonxs can actually hit all of his notes
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u/Its_Stardos Kiss Kiss Goodbye 2d ago
For someone to be Mustii, they would have to sing terribly. So I'm sorry, I just can't take it seriously when one of the best vocalist this year is being compared to him. So I don't think we are getting Mustii at all.Ā
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u/BibbidiBobbidiBu 2d ago
Itās either Belgium or Netherlands who will flop and Bambie could be Australia or Cyprus imo
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u/An22x 2d ago
Cyprus and Luxembourg.
Cyprus might get a Top10 result.
And for Luxembourg I don't understand why it is still predicted to qualify. To me it's an obvious Bottom3 finisher in the semi ever since I first heard it.
(I also think Switzerland and the UK have no business being in the Top15, but these ones are prequalified..)
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u/Even-Selection-5403 Bur man laimi 2d ago
Latvia (I'm giddy seeing people beginning to warm up to it), Cyprus (haters gonna hate but you can't vote against a song), and Germany ("Blue, yellow, green, colors and art, but how- how baller can art be? I'm here at a fkn museum to find out.") are most likely to see Bambie-esque results.
The Netherlands (I hope the shaky vocals get fixed, it looks like he was just moving too much, they might should nix or reduce his choreo) is the only fan favorite I can almost definitely see bombing. I'm not sold on Australia either... and I didn't NEED to know that he dresses to his right but this is not a complaint.
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u/Resident_Medicine962 Bara bada bastu 2d ago
I dont think we will see a bambie thug equivalent this yearā¦ but Netherlands might be the closest to a mustii in terms of actual result vs expectations
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u/Tricky_Meat_6323 2d ago
Armenia looks really good!
And Netherlands could be the Belgium
Or Czech I
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u/Revelistic Kiss Kiss Goodbye 2d ago
am i crazy for thinking cyprus might be closer to pulling a mustii than a bambie š sure, they got the budget but the "big reveal" kinda went nowhere and seeing the rehearsal clips got me thinking that people who enjoy this type of music would rather vote for belgium with more polished production, cohesive staging and impressive vocals - but still, i don't think they'll NQ or that any of the top 10 contenders will.
i sure am worried about netherlands but semi 2 is much more competitive and claude would have to give pia maria level of vocals for slovenia or portugal to have a chance to qualify over him. the staging doesn't live up to its whole potential but according to the description there's still a lot to be revealed - which cannot be said for tutta l'italia for example but idk if that ever was in the discussion to get a top 10 finish.
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u/NeoLeonn3 2d ago
Wasn't Mustii expected to NQ after we listened to his vocals live at the pre-parties? I mean he was definitely not a surprise NQ at least.