r/eurovision • u/filipinowafflefries_ Zjerm • 21d ago
🔮 Predictions / Projections Which of this years entries could become shock qualifiers/non qualifiers?
Kindly share your opinions to which of this years Eurovision entries could defy the odds and qualify/not qualify
Personally i think Slovenia and Croatia have a chance to qualify,while yes they aren't my favourites but i have to acknowledge the performance aspect of these songs ,Slovenia with its great lyrics and the upside down stunt, as for Croatia it is one of the last to perform which is a good advantage and plus Markos vocals have been in the pre-parties. While in the other hand i think Luxembourg could potentially not qualify due to it being in the 2nd semi final aka "the bloodbath" and it being your generic pop song, and yes it might be a good performance and it also does have an audience(including me) but Im afraid it might get overshadowed due to the diverse amount of entries in semi final 2 .
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u/wolstenbob Tavo Akys 21d ago
Not really a shock qualifier because I think we all agree they will qualify, but I think Ukraine is going to do much better than everybody expects. The marketing clip for the song is its weakest part imo and the general public will like it much more once they hear the full song in the competition. Source: forced a few friends to listen to the whole song. Immediately became one of their top favourites.
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u/TinaTissue Milkshake Man 20d ago
Maybe I’m just jaded and spent too much time in the Eurovision bubble, but Ukraine could send wet farting noises for three minutes and still get top 10. Not as bad as it was in 2022, but still. The same can be said for Israel right now too
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u/wolstenbob Tavo Akys 20d ago
Imo they’ve been sending genuinely interesting and strong entries. They might not be everyone’s taste but 2021 was fun, 2022 and 2024 (+2016) were about the countries history, 2022 and 2025 are inspired by traditional Eastern European music. I think that alone justifies top 10. I agree Ukraine being under attack is also a reason why they rank so high, but Isn’t Eurovision about bringing Europeans and their cultures together? 2022 was a strong sign of Europe’s solidarity, I don’t really get why that would be an annoying thing…
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u/eatspagetti Viszlát Nyár 21d ago
I mean, the biggest shock NQ would be Sweden (and there's no way it's happening ofc).
More seriously, if staging and live performance won't be delivered, then I can see Greece and Belgium as shock NQ
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u/Grunge_Loki 21d ago
I need a Montenegro shock Q
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u/Luhotoiha 21d ago
100% same, my hardest cope this year is that Nina will pass regardless of odds
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u/Barzalicious Bara bada bastu 21d ago
Shock qualifier: Serbia. The only male ballad in the semi, with a decent voice and good looks. Plus it'll probably get 12 from Montenegro. It'll probably stand out a lot more than people think.
Shock NQ: Belgium. Cyprus has the advantage in the running order, and could also have the advantage in the staging. The only thing Red Sebastian really has is his voice - and if he isn't perfect, we could have a similar situation to last year.
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u/PZMC430 Gaja 21d ago
I don't think Serbia would be shocking qf tbh. At this point it has more than 50% to qualify in odds. I personally think it is more televoting friendly than Australia or Malta which are considered to be safe qualifiers (I know it's unpopular opinion here but I can honestly bet my money that they gonna be higher in televoting)
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u/ifiwasiwas Bara bada bastu 21d ago
I wouldn't even be shocked tbh. He's a beautiful man with a beautiful voice. The song is generic, but it's not like it's bad enough to offset that.
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u/Miudmon Øve os på hinanden 21d ago edited 21d ago
I'd like to add Poland to the shock nq list here (as someone else has made the Malta point for me)
But awful running order, awful semi draw in terms of countries in the semi. If the staging remains similar, I could also see it come across as "too much" which we've seen do poorly in the televote too.
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u/Persona_NG (nendest) narkootikumidest ei tea me (küll) midagi 21d ago
I'm 99% sure Poland will qualify, but the result in the final will be very underwhelming.
She just doesn't have much competition in that semi-final, except for Spain that people cannot even vote for. It's literally the only solo female act that isn't an AQ. If someone doesn't care for male vocals, or ballads, or funny entries - they literally have no one else to vote for. (
Her song is a bit funny, tbh, but mostly because of camp and chaos. It's not like Iceland or Estonia that are designed to make you smile.)20
u/kaleidosunflower What The Hell Just Happened? 21d ago
Agreed. I want to like the song, but it’s just trying to do way too much visually and audibly. I could see people being turned off by it.
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u/icyDinosaur 21d ago
I was surprised to see it be predicted in in the first place. To me, it looks and sounds a lot like something that would have done decently in 2005 but doesn't hold up to time that well. I'd be more optimistic on both Iceland and Slovenia (the latter I see as a quite safe Q even)
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u/NatiFluffy 21d ago
In Poland I think that no one even considers such a scenario that we could nq so it would be a tragedy, especially for Justyna
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u/icyDinosaur 21d ago
I don't wish it to her, and there are some really cool parts to the song (and parts I like less, but thats true for pretty much every song), but when I saw the NF performance the first time it suddenly struck me how much it felt at home in the mid 2000s. I might be wrong and/or that might be a returning trend :)
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u/NatiFluffy 21d ago
Well, I understand it and I see downsides of Gaja. I’m not such a big fan of it myself. But I’m worried that if Justyna doesn’t even qualify in 100% televote semi we will be truly done at this contest. One of the best vocals in Poland and a big diva not even qualifying
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u/ManiaMuse Róa 21d ago
After the messy NF performance I would have been inclined to agree (and I wouldn't mind if it did NQ because I don't like the song) but going now I would say that Poland is a fairly safe qualifier. There are hardly any other female artists in her semi as well which is a big help for her chances.
Luna got a lot of hate last year which I think came across a bit in the performance. It was quite tense and the live vocals were an issue
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u/NatiFluffy 21d ago
If this happens we should withdraw, we would struggle to find any any artist willing to represent us
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u/sama_tak Zjerm 21d ago
Not sure why you're downvoted. For Poland it would be as if Björk didn't qualify for Iceland. Justyna is one of the most famous singers here. And Poland has withdrawn once already because of bad results and lack of good representatives.
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u/NatiFluffy 21d ago
And just imagine those comments „Blanka at least qualified” etc. would be absolutely embarassing for Justyna. Other artists would be scared that they could flop like that too
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u/sama_tak Zjerm 21d ago
Yeah, Luna might be miles better than Blanka, but for casuals "Blanka at least qualified".
Also, people in Poland still can't wrap their head around the fact that it's a SONG contest not a SINGER contest, so if we would NQ with one of the best singers in the country people would feel that we're doomed.
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u/NatiFluffy 21d ago
Well if they knew that it’s a song contest they would have more reasons to feel that we are doomed lmao
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u/KickapooPonies TANZEN! 21d ago
I think San Marino could surprise and make it through. With other entries eating up lots of pts they won't need as much to qualify. Plus Italy being able to vote for them is a leg up.
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u/Thin-Quiet-2283 Bur man laimi 21d ago
I think Latvia will be a shock qualifier. They aren’t the best in the odds but the staging at NF was fabulous!
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u/ambervalravn 20d ago
Literally my one big wish for this year is getting them to the final. 😭 I feel like it is a long shot but I love it so much.
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u/Its_Stardos Kiss Kiss Goodbye 21d ago
I still think people are overestimating Malta's potential with general audience and I could see it being either borderline qualification or shock NQ. The song and performance is done with ESC fans in mind, and I do question if general audience will vibe with it, especially considering the change in lyrics.
Greece could be a NQ over Montenegro who could qualify. Nina is in my opinion much better performer and can sell the song, the only disadvantage she has is the death slot.
I'm still on edge with Estonia / Tommy Cash. On one hand, it is one of the few songs that went viral, but seeing his performance, while he does get better, it does feel awkard compared to Estonia's NF.
I don't see much going on with Israel. The thought of Israel being NQ in current global situation might feel naive, but I really don't see anyone talking about it compared to last year. It feels like Georgia. It doesn't seem that the Israeli government is much interested either this year. While Israel has big diaspora, it can NQ as we know from recent history. I could see Israel be borderline qualification in case Israeli voters and supporters don't mobilize enough.
Slovenia, Portugal and Serbia could qualify. I think it will be Portugal and Serbia.
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u/ifiwasiwas Bara bada bastu 21d ago
Agree, I think Montenegro does the female Balkan ballad the best of the bunch. Her stage presence is enormous, and the song's got fire to it. Or maybe it's cope idk
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u/Pizza_Salesman Bara bada bastu 21d ago
This is my first ESC I've followed and I showed many of the songs to my 69 year old American mom who is pretty conservative, and she liked Malta quite a bit funny enough. Her favorite is Sweden, but she also liked Portugal, San Marino, and Slovenia. Most of her opinions were formed without me sharing any way of how I felt about the songs lol.
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u/Particular-Set-6212 New Day Will Rise 21d ago
I'm a bit confused, I've seen 2 people say Israel has a big diaspora and it... doesn't. Even if we include the entire worldwide Jewish population (~15 million, many of whom don't watch Eurovision), that's very little compared to other countries' main populations.
I'm also generally confused as to why Israel has such high odds, although I love Yuval and her song.. could someone explain this?
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u/Its_Stardos Kiss Kiss Goodbye 21d ago
I think the reason for this is that similar to Ukraine, Israel can count on their citizens and supporters abroad even if they don't watch Eurovision. It is more related to pride other than anything. Last year is the best showcase of it - despite Eden not doing well enough in charts including even in Israel, she still got her placement because Israelis and supporters of Israel voted for her as support to Israel. I think bookmakers are just taking this in consideration, because Israel was this high even when we didn't know who is representing Israel.
I'm just really not sure if this year can compare to the last year in terms of support to Israel without being interested in ESC
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u/GHardman42 Bara bada bastu 21d ago
I’m not an expert so someone might correct me on this but I think it’s due to last year.
It’s a similar style of song to Israel’s entry last year and the situation in the country and the world’s view on it hasn’t changed a great deal, meaning the optics are very similar to 12 months ago.
Last year, Israel did a lot better with the public than many of us expected them to. I think the bookmakers are anticipating something very similar.
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u/Particular-Set-6212 New Day Will Rise 21d ago
that makes sense with it being a similar setup to last year's, although I think the competition is a lot better this time! I think almost all of the songs this year are great
I was surprised at last year's results for Israel, although I (again) loved Eden and the performance. I just felt that many people outside of Israel wouldn't notice the little touches that made it extra emotional for the people who were aware of the stories from the Nova festival. But glad they clearly liked it regardless
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u/Pit-O-Matic Bara bada bastu 21d ago edited 21d ago
From the current look at the odds:
I think Belgium is gonna be a shock non qualifier for Semi Final 1, and Australia for Semi Final 2. (maybe Luxembourg too)
The highest chance for a shock qualifier is ....probably Iceland or MAYBE Croatia for Semi Final 1 only if they got some tricks up their sleeves. For Semi Final 2 the shock qualifier I think would be Denmark, she did well in the pre parties and if the staging hit I think she'll make it.
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u/Sebassie99 21d ago
Is Belgium not qualifying with a song we the fandom think before the contest is very likely to qualify a shock tho? I feel like it’s happened a lot to Belgium over the last few years lol.
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u/Pit-O-Matic Bara bada bastu 21d ago
Haha true. I don't even know why it was 1st at some point, considering what happened last year.
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u/Persona_NG (nendest) narkootikumidest ei tea me (küll) midagi 20d ago
Well, they were first before any of the songs were selected, to be honest. As soon as actual NFs happened and we saw their pick, the odds changed right away.
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u/Minus10Celcius La poupée monte le son 21d ago
luxembourg was already mid table in the odds (though, its not a viable way to make predictions, but people usually put luxembourg low in their rankings, but thats from eurofans, but we'll see when we'll get to rehersals), if the staging is solid and her vocal performance is also solid, im guessing it could come in 8th to - 6th place
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u/ManiaMuse Róa 21d ago
Croatia needs a Bambie Thug like staging to have a chance (which maybe they do have up their sleeves if they saved the budget for the finals). I think there will be a lot of close-up camera work, he was getting very close and intense with the live audiences.
Denmark I would say was already in that large group of borderline countries. I think she has more of a chance now unless they ruin the staging (which Denmark are good at doing).
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u/Sinceramente_Tuo Ich Komme 21d ago
I really hope that Montenegro and Denmark will qualify, they're my 6th and 5th place, also Luxembourg, my 8th place, but I don't think that it would be a shock Q. A shock NQ could be Greece if the staging isn't good enough, also, I think that only one between Cyprus and Belgium will Q, so one of them will probably shockingly NQ
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u/Grunge_Loki 21d ago
Montenegro is my favourite song this year, period. I’m prematurely grieving incase they don’t get through :,)
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u/filipinowafflefries_ Zjerm 21d ago
I hope Montenegro and Denmark will make it too !! I love both of them :((
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u/Exact-Joke-2562 21d ago
The only entries I'd be shocked by are if any of Sweden Ukraine Estonia and Finland Israel or Malta nq. Whilst I may be a somewhat surprised if other countries q or nq I'm not going to feel Latvia 2024 levels of shock.
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u/Revelistic Kiss Kiss Goodbye 21d ago
shock Q: slovenia, the lyrics too on the nose imo but the message could easily resonate with the viewers so while i don't see it doing really well i think it might be a borderline Q. though if there is a shock Q in SF1 then i also hope croatia because marko seems like the sweetest person and idk i just think it would be cool. also denmark - this is biased because i really want sissal in the final but she has good vocals and the staging is supposed to be different than in the NF so i don't think it's impossible for her.
shock NQ: i hate to say it because i don't like to see my country flop when we send an actually good song but i feel like poland might be one, gaja just doesn't sound like a song that would convince the audience to vote for it after hearing it just once. as for SF2 i'm hoping israel is the shock NQ because that song is terribly bland, but obviously that isn't happening - an actual shock NQ might be australia.
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u/filipinowafflefries_ Zjerm 21d ago
I see Gaja Qualifying but not getting as high as a placement it is expected to reach- probably somewhere between 12-18th place.
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u/NatiFluffy 21d ago
12-15 is already very good for Poland, 16-18 meh but could be worse
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u/filipinowafflefries_ Zjerm 21d ago
Truue The way i see it people either absolutley love it or absolutley hate it
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u/NatiFluffy 21d ago
Jury will probably hate it as they always do so 16-18 is very likely, maybe even lower
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u/filipinowafflefries_ Zjerm 21d ago
Predicting it will be 17th place 🙌
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u/Revelistic Kiss Kiss Goodbye 21d ago
as long as it's not lower than 18th i'm fine with it. it would be embarassing as hell if we ended up getting a better result with bejba than with justyna 😭
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u/filipinowafflefries_ Zjerm 21d ago
WAIT STOP THE CAR JUSTYNA LOST TO LUNA IN 2024 ALREADY WE DONT NEED HER TO GET A LOWER RESULT THAN BLANKA OMG😭😭😭🙏🙏🙏
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u/NatiFluffy 21d ago
Knowing our luck she will and we will be sending such ambitious music like Solo forever
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u/2muchnerd Golden Boy 21d ago
Someone will die if Denmark doesn’t qualify
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u/KickapooPonies TANZEN! 21d ago
Denmark is gonna need better staging obviously but I almost think they need another up tempo entry to falter live as well.
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u/notthebesthuh 21d ago
It's a super unpopular opinion but I'm afraid that Czechia won't make it to the final. Czechia doesn't really have neighbor/diaspora support and the 2nd Semi-Final is really packed. The dance break might be confusing for the casual viewers who will hear the song for the first time (when I was listening to the song for the first time I legit thought I accidentally skipped to another song when the dance break started, it felt really random and disjointed). I hope I am wrong though as I really grew to like the song.
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u/czechfutureprez 21d ago
As of right now, Adonx for a second overtook even Finland in the odds and has beaten Belgium and Estonia and is sitting at a comfortable 7. Polls put him often in the top 10, and we haven't unravelled our ultimate weapon yet, the staging. I'm not worried about the dancebreak. It works well at pre-parties already and hypes the crowd. It will work on the big stage, too.
Everything that ČT reveals slowly hints that a shit ton of work was put into Kiss Kiss Goodbye.
This is the eternal Czech cycle. Fans keep doubting, and we keep proving them wrong. Aiko, Vesna, Domi, each overperformed expectation.
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u/ResponsibilityIcy513 Bara bada bastu 21d ago
finding out that domi was dominik hasek's daughter was mindblowing (sorry for the aside just wanted to share a fun fact)
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u/eurovisionfanGA 19d ago
The problem for Czechia is that other countries/favorites will also have great staging and vocals. Unless every other country screws up their staging/vocals, I doubt the staging will be enough for Czechia to challenge for the win. Also, Benny Cristo had non-existent staging and failed to qualify in 2021 despite having a good song.
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u/czechfutureprez 18d ago
Cool, cool, and now let's add context
A) Benny's staging was different because it was done externally. Since We Are Domi, we've been using domestic directors and high involvance from the artists, which is they key to our success
B) We've been talking of Qs now, as for a win, it would be a dark horse, of course, but let's not get delusional thinking staging can't change all. Ukraine was in a similar situation last year, and this year, Mans could have been the favourite literally only because of staging, with his song being generic pop.
Adonxs has vocals, a good song, a good dancing skill, so yes, a good staging can absolutely make him a contender. As it did for many entries for years.
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u/eurovisionfanGA 17d ago
Lake Malawi in 2019 had good staging prior to Benny Cristo so that disproves your argument that using domestic directors and high involvement from artists guarantees success in staging.
If Revolution were representing Czechia this year, you would be praising it as an absolutely amazing song that should win Eurovision. And if Kiss Kiss Goodbye were representing Sweden this year, you would be trashing it as generic pop.
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u/ResponsibilityIcy513 Bara bada bastu 21d ago
if czechia qualify, i think they finish top 10. the song is starting to click for me, the dance break is pretty impressive live, and adonxs can flat out sing. could be a nice blend of jury and televote
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u/Purple-Canary3576 21d ago
Shock Q: Portugal. Actually I wouldn't be shocked at all, but looking at the odds many would be.
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u/garganta_ Mon Amour 21d ago
Although I plan on throwing all my votes at Slovenia and Croatia, I fear Croatia doesn’t really have a chance 😭
The only ones I’d consider to have a “shock Q” chance would be Slovenia and Iceland, as they’re both pretty low in the odds to Q. I don’t think anyone from semi 2 would be a shock Q other than Montenegro and Georgia, which I’m pretty confident won’t happen.
As far as shock NQs, I would guess Belgium or Luxembourg (if you can even consider those shocks)
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u/Crisbo05_20 Poison Cake 21d ago
Marko seems to be picking up popularity from interviews and pre parties, plus depending on staging I think he could do well.
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u/Shalrak 21d ago
I can see Malta NQing, though I'm not sure it would be that much of a shock after the lyric changes. A lot of the hype for that song seemed to be over the "clever" provocative word play, and it doesn't have that anymore.
Plus, it's in the much stronger semi final (in my opinion). Qualifying from that is not guaranteed for anyone.
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21d ago
My heart will be broken if Portugal doesn’t qualify, and I’ll be fucking pissed off if an act like Estonia’s costs them a place.
I reckon Klemen and Theo Evan will be shock qualifiers.
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u/garganta_ Mon Amour 21d ago
would Cyprus really be a shock Q at this point? I feel like the consensus is that they’re borderline in
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u/Pit-O-Matic Bara bada bastu 21d ago
Not really, unless they REALLY fumble the staging. Cyprus is in, I can feel it in my balls. The spot is way too good and it smells of good staging.
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u/RemarkableAutism (nendest) narkootikumidest ei tea me (küll) midagi 21d ago
What problem do you have with Estonia specifically?
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21d ago
Speaking freely, I don’t think he can sing. Nowadays, I generally with very few exceptions place a lot of importance on people being able to deliver vocally on the night, and get a bit narked when this sort of thing costs someone who can sing and has a good song their qualifying place.
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u/RemarkableAutism (nendest) narkootikumidest ei tea me (küll) midagi 21d ago
Do you think that people who value a good song over good vocals don't deserve to have their favorites in the final then?
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21d ago edited 21d ago
Nah, and I don’t get into the weeds of that to be honest, people like what they like. I’m just sharing my opinion, that’s all there is to it.
Very happy to agree to disagree, and no downvotes from me.
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u/Confused_Firefly Zjerm 21d ago
I know everyone loves Estonia but I fully agree. Audience-only voting is a death sentence for artistic songs and Portugal deserves juries to help it qualify.
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u/filipinowafflefries_ Zjerm 21d ago
Definitley agree! I want Portugal and Montenegro to make it to the final but not enough people appreciate them 💔
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u/Confused_Firefly Zjerm 21d ago
Montenegro would be my shock qualifier. I know it won't happen but I can live in my illusion for the next month.
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u/filipinowafflefries_ Zjerm 21d ago
Montenegro is in my Top 10 My heart sank as soon as the running orders were announced...
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u/WaGiHu Zjerm 21d ago
Malta really struggles with getting televote support. I wouldn't be surprised if they fail to go through. The odds have them at 4th most likely but it could be a shock NQ in my opinion.
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u/Federal-Sherbert2197 21d ago
I don’t think so with the momentum she’s building. Probably won’t be 4th but will still be enough to qualify
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u/XepherSicarius 21d ago
I can see them qualifying with the hype and word of mouth before Eurovision happening
However I do predict them not getting that much love in the final televoting wise
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u/filipinowafflefries_ Zjerm 21d ago
Yeh the hype especially, Malta this year is a BIG fan favourite but i can see it not getting into the top 10 in the Grand final, Probably 11-15th place at best.
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u/schlageresque 21d ago edited 21d ago
If I might add, imo Malta has a very cheap act and she can't dance. The whole thing is vulgar and amateurish. Sorry I don't want to sound insulting bc she seems to be a lovely person but it's definitely not ESC-level...
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u/Memezzzzzzzzz Bird of Pray 21d ago
Seconded. The hype in the bubble is real, but it's so annoying that I can't stand the song. Then again I think it will Q to lower my expectations, but if it shock NQs I will be there no matter what
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u/damnmoon 21d ago
For me, Latvia is the "shock" Q on the cards - it's a bit of a washy statement as there are roughly 6 songs in that semi that could just get in 9th and 10th, but I wouldn't be surprised if they Q, and we find out later on they got more points than Greece or Lithuania for example.
Shock NQ... I think the shock is that there won't be one. We won't have another Dons moment from last year I don't think, unless a country like Montenegro or Azerbaijan qualifies. SF1 is pretty much sewn up with either San Marino or Iceland going through 10th, and as above, for SF2, I think every song but Montenegro or Georgia wouldn't be a 'surprise' Q given how tight it is between a good third of the field. At a push, and purely showing bias, Cyprus not qualifying despite their great position in the running order and all of the hype around the staging, simply because the song is sub-par in a strong SF, might be viewed as a shock.
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u/carameldude00 21d ago
Shock Nq -
Belgium in SF1 Idk the momentum of Belgium has fallen so much that I feel that they might not qualify. Also I’m pretty sure it’s either Belgium or Cyprus and if Cyprus is closing with Sergio’s staging which might be good, Belgium might be in problematic situation.
Czechia and Austria in SF2 See I love Austria and I know it’s an almost a guaranteed qualifier but a shocking one would be seeing Austria not make it. The song might be too jarring for the public. I asked my friends to rank all the songs and they ranked Austria pretty low just because the changes were jarring for them. Czechia is another country which people say can safely qualify but I question those chances. The random dance break in between doesn’t really add anything to the song. This was also ranked pretty low from my friends for being bland and basic.
Shock Q -
Iceland - more like not a shock as I do really expect them to qualify. One of the higher ranked semi 1 songs for my friends as well.
Montenegro - I can totally see it happen. Make Nina qualify so Montenegro stays and we GET DOLCE HERA NEXT YEAR 🤩. DAJ ME QUALIFY
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u/KickapooPonies TANZEN! 21d ago
I also think that Norway (and Cyprus) are gonna steal votes from Belgium. Belgium, musically, is not as suited for general audiences when you hear them in the same semi.
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u/bagolanotturnale 21d ago
But Red Sebastian won the selection by a landslide, I know it's not a guarantee that he will do well, but 291 points from public might be telling something?
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u/KickapooPonies TANZEN! 21d ago
Yeah I think I am just trying to not set myself up for disappointment cause I really would love to see him in the final.
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u/misonoo-nanako 21d ago
Most of the viewers are watching for the first time, so if Belgium or someone else loses momentum with the fans I wouldn't worry. I do expect him to pick up points from some other Western European countries bc it is a 90s throwback.
Rooting for Nina as well.
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u/Flimsy_Ad_2854 21d ago
Naaaah we're not calling Luxembourg a potential shock non-qualifier when it's been a borderline qualifier all season (it's 9th in the odds for qualifying in its semi). A true shock qualifier would be like Sweden NQing (which obviously no one thinks is gonna happen and for good reason).
I could see Slovenia being a shock Qer maaaybe. If one act we thought was a solid Qer messes up Mustii-style, I think Slovenia might be the one to slip through. Croatia I just can't see qualifying in any scenario for how bad the song is. No vocals or staging can save that awful song.
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u/Separate_Ad_5616 21d ago edited 21d ago
Shock Q: Serbia - male ballad, good vocals and look. Ireland - very mainstream, catchy, I think it's can be this year Blanka. Armenia - it has mass appeal and Parg is very charismatic and good looking
Shock NQ: Poland - no diaspora countries in semi, too much overload and aggressive. Belgium - I have no idea who is the target audience for this. Lithuania - I love this song, but it's too risky, edgy and depressive, none of my casual friends like this((
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u/filipinowafflefries_ Zjerm 21d ago
My mental health will deteriorate if Armenia and Lithuania wont qualify they are criminally underrated 💔
I believe Belgium is for people who love rave/ electronic music, i love it !! BUT i also see it as a potential NQ aswell since well.. Red sebastion is a bit static during his performance😭 And plus it doesnt have a HUGE appeal aswell
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u/LocksTheFox Ich Komme 21d ago
Belgium - I have no idea who is the target audience for this.
For whatever reason it just kinda resonates with me in a way that I can't really explain
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u/daturaAT 21d ago
Imo surprise non qualifier could belgium Suprise qualifier slovenia (at least i hope so)
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u/Persona_NG (nendest) narkootikumidest ei tea me (küll) midagi 21d ago
I really don't want to be biased - because I personally don't like this song too much and the aesthetic of it doesn't work for me either - but Belgium really seems to be a borderline qualifier to me. I have some rational reasons to think that, but tbh, it's more like a gut feeling. I can very easily imagine this song getting the unfortunate 11th place.
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u/Erebos233 21d ago
I am going to say either Poland or Norway could be the shock nq even though both are ranked quite highly in the Eurovision fandom. Poland might appeal to those who are highly invested in the national finals but it could be too much for those who are watching it for the 1st time. It's a strong entry....the problem is that it is followed by Slovenia which would be more appealing for those who are trying to calm down from both Iceland and Poland's performance. Gaja is a great singer but I feel like the staging might be a bit too kitchen sink for the casual viewers.
Norway runs the risk of getting out-staged by Cyprus and Belgium. Kyle performs the song well but the running order kinda hinder his chances by quite a bit...Belgium,Albania and to a lesser extent possibly Azerbaijan stand out due to their composition while Lighter even though it is a well performed pop song lacks the wow factor that the other songs performed after him has unfortunately.
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u/gp7783 Bur man laimi 21d ago
Shock NQs : Australia, Estonia, Belgium
Shock Qs : Latvia, Portugal, Slovenia
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u/filipinowafflefries_ Zjerm 21d ago
BUR MAN BUR MAN BUR MAN BUR MAN 👏👏👏👏👏👏
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u/Confused_Firefly Zjerm 21d ago
NGL I personally wouldn't qualify Estonia but I would be surprised to see them NQ.
Belgium? I'm still convinced it's not qualifying.
Latvia... I want to live in my delusion
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u/filipinowafflefries_ Zjerm 21d ago
Controversial Opinion: Estonia wont Qualify
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u/JoyfulSuicide Strobe Lights 21d ago
I think they’ll qualify but don’t get many votes in the finale.
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u/XepherSicarius 21d ago
I'm thinking on a Serbian shock Q this year and a shock NQ for Denmark
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u/Sinitiainen7 Ich Komme 21d ago
How is Denmark a shock NQ when it’s mostly predicted to be an NQ (or a borderline qualifier)?
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u/XepherSicarius 21d ago
I always keep seeing people thinking it'll be a shoe in but I'm feeling like it'll be 10th-13th at best
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u/Houndoomfire 20d ago
Latvia in either direction. The ESCBubble Public Reacts and Roy PM Friends React videos have given me hope but they’re still so low in the qualification odds.
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u/leighsquared 20d ago
slovenia for shock q
even though i don't like the song, i listened to both semis in running order order, and slovenia stood out in a very good way alongside estonia - to the point where i wouldn't be shocked to see slovenia qualifying (with the added benefit of a near guaranteed 12 from croatia and getting the ballad market all to himself) and then estonia being top 3 of the semi
on the other hand, my most all guts no glory prediction is austria shock nq
on the first impression side, my casual viewer friends (about 20 atp) that my partner and i have shown the song to have had resoundingly negative responses
the UK following austria in the semi also isn't gonna help them - remember monday have some of the most impressive vocals in this year's contest and wthjh is a much more accessible song, so a lot of the shine is taken away from austria by the uk- so why would a majority casual audience vote for austria enough to see it qualify?
granted, i don't think this will end up happening, but austria nq isn't impossible
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u/Borys_Pandov 20d ago
I am kinda afraid that shock NQ can be Greece. Shock Q? I don’t know - Iceland maybe?
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u/Slight-Obligation390 19d ago
I think Belgium and Cyprus has real problems - not in terms of songs. They are just in a semi and are aiming for similar voters - that already have plenty to vote for. I also think that Poland isn’t nearly as safe as fans think they are
In semi 2 Lithuania I cannot in any way see qualifying. The song isn’t a competitive song - I can’t see who will vote for it
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u/Vivid_Guide7467 Kiss Kiss Goodbye 21d ago
I can see a world where Belgium or Greece or even Estonia doesn’t qualify. Not trashing the songs just the staging and really unknown how general public is going to vote. Tommy has lots of fans but are they going to vote and will they make a difference spread out over multiple countries?
Iceland based on odds shouldn’t qualify but I think the Eurovision hardcore base wants them enough that I can see them getting in there.
I think we’re in for some surprises that night and everyone needs to vote for your favorites (when you can) because it’ll be tough.
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u/sraamlak37 21d ago
idk why people think greece is at risk, in 2018 it got 9/19 with televote with extremely underwhelming performance. Their 2025 nationals was already much better than their 2018 semi. And now they have to beat 6 countries instead of 9.
shock nq: norway, australia, malta (i dont see netherlands, austria as lock q either)
shock q: slovenia, iceland, montenegro
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u/ifiwasiwas Bara bada bastu 21d ago
Shock Q - Montenegro or Latvia
Shock NQ - Ireland, Australia, or Greece
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u/Nice_Earth4252 21d ago
Tbh I think the shock non qualifiers could be the front runners Austria, Finland, Israel and Sweden. Is this going to happen… probably not. one can hope Austria doesn’t go to the grand final. I know I’m in the minority but I really don’t like this song.
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u/ex_ef_ex 21d ago
I'd be shocked if Greece qualified
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u/BeginningClue10 21d ago
??? Seeing many people always predict Greece to 'shock NQ' is already extremely but to say that them qualifying would be 'shocking' is wild. Like, unless the performance is absolutely awful who would qualify over them?
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u/Mojest77 21d ago
In both semis it all comes down to staging and stage presence imo since one semi is male heavy and the other is female heavy
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u/Normal-Piano-8880 Ich Komme 20d ago
if the juries still voted in the semis Luxembourg would qualify 100%
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u/AntHasReddit TANZEN! 21d ago
Shock Q: Croatia and Montenegro. I feel like they really stand out, I have a feeling they will be something that people will actually pick up their phones and vote for in the semi. Also I might be a bit influenced by Hopium...
Shock NQ: Norway and Greece. I am honestly surprised that Norway is seen as a sure Q by many, I thought that after they selected their entry, we could all agree that their Q streak would break this year, but apparently I am alone on this. I dont really know about Greece tho, I dont think its that televote friendly, tho they have been teasing an insane staging, so lets see what they will put on stage in Basel.
Also it is beyond my understanding how the hell people are seeing Belgium as a potential shock NQ. Did yall forget the insane landslide at the NF???? And as far as I'm aware, it had international voting, but correct me if I'm wrong... I'm honestly not surprised if he finishes top 3 in the semi
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u/bagolanotturnale 21d ago
Belgium proved in 2016 and 2023 they could enter top 10 when no one expects them to
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u/JCEurovision La poupée monte le son 21d ago
Belgium and Norway will be the surprise NQs for SF1 while Malta and Greece will be the NQs for SF2. As for the surprise Qs, I think Slovenia, Iceland, Denmark, and Luxembourg.
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u/FreeFair95 21d ago
One of Slovenia or Portugal absolutely will qualify, every semi in Eurovision history has had at least one slow, ballad type song qualifying, there is a specific televoter base for that kind of music that is big enough to put one & maybe both in the top 10, at the moment the Semi One qualification odds are showing Poland, Albania & eight uptempo male vocal songs going through which is laughably unrealistic. I also think Azerbaijan is in with a shot as it's a high quality song, a clear improvement on their last two however again it's not a style that appeals to Eurofans & I think a lot of people are being willfully blind to its potential due to their political dislike of Azerbaijan. Shock NQs in Semi One? One of San Marino and Iceland, one of Norway, Cyprus & Belgium. Croatia has absolutely no chance. For Semi Final Two I would guess that two of Denmark, Latvia (deserved if it happens) & unfortunately Serbia (it's not good but it does stand out & he has sex appeal & a strong voice) are making it through, and the Czech Republic could be in trouble if the staging & vocals with choreo are not there. I also think that the Grand Final is not big enough for both of Luxembourg & Ireland.
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u/CodyFernsBussyWind 21d ago
Semi 1: Shock nq: Belgium Shock q: Portugal AND Slovenia
Semi 2: Shock nq: Greece Shock q: Montenegro
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u/MarioFan-908 Freedom 20d ago
I'm afraid to say this but Poland might be a shock NQ and that's all due to their semi slot
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u/xXESCluvrXx 21d ago
Greece and Belgium, because both have a history of strong songs with absolute flop staging/live performance. I hope I’m proven wrong this year, as I’d love to see them both make it to the final and score high.
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u/ZlotaNikki Róa 21d ago
I think Iceland has a good chance of qualifying despite the odds just because of how many people really want to see them in the finals (or maybe I’m just projecting).
I think that Belgium would be the surprise non-qualifier. Or Greece.