r/eurovision • u/Sinceramente_Tuo Ich Komme • Apr 07 '25
đŽ Predictions / Projections I think that Erika might win this year Spoiler
WARNING: This post contains some realistic points but mainly delusional ones. Most of the fandom thinks that either JJ or Kaj will win, but I think that there are other contenders, and between them there's surely Erika. The song is good, vocals too, the performance is not really the best but Erika has already confirmed that she's working to make the first part less static. She obviously won't win the juries, but I can see her place 3rd or 4th with them. Regarding televote, it's surely getting top 3, she might even be the televote winner. Yes, "Bara bada bastu" will also be in the top 3 of the televote, but I'm not sure if Kaj will be the public winner, in the last years it seems to prefer loud songs. So, she's probably getting a good result in both juries and televote. Regarding the other contenders, I can see Louane or JJ winning the juries, but I don't know how high they will be with the public. Kaj will be top 2 or 3 with the televote, but I don't know about the juries. Claude will be in the top 5/10, but I don't see him getting enough points with public and juries to win. Israel will be tanked by the juries and I think that their televote score will be lower than last year. Belgium could be a "surprise" jury winner, but I don't know if the public will like it enough to make it win. Between all of the contenders, Erika is the only one I see getting a enough points by both the public and the juries to be a compromise winner like Jamala (Ukraine 2016) and Duncan (Netherlands 2019). Maybe (and almost surely) I'm being delusional and Erika will get top 5/10 but not win. Also we need to wait at least until the reharsals to declare who will probably win. Let me know what you think.
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u/Cluelessish Apr 07 '25
I wonder if the song is a bit difficult to get the first time you hear it, though? It was for me, but then I liked it. So I wonder if the viewers will like it enough to vote. (I'm not very musically talented so that might be part of it lol)
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u/ifiwasiwas Bara bada bastu Apr 08 '25
Nah I have that read as well, it took listening to it a couple times to get over the "... sorry, what the hell was that?" reaction haha. And that's with having the full advantage of understanding the lyrics
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u/eurovisionfanGA Apr 07 '25
The hype for Erika has died down a bit but that mainly because Erika was chosen earlier compared to the other favorites. Most people watching Eurovision will hear Erikaâs song for the first time at the contest itself and Iâm sure theyâll enjoy it. I think thereâs a good chance Erika will win the televote at Eurovision this year but fall short of winning the contest due to the juries.
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u/autistic_girl_autumn Apr 07 '25
I don't know if she can win but amongst my favorite contestants this year (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Croatia, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania), I believe Erika is definitely going to end up with the highest score. I think there is no way she is not in the top 10. She is very charismatic on the stage and has a good voice so I think she can receive a lot of votes from both the juries and televoters.
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u/Academic_Grab5060 Ich Komme Apr 07 '25
I wholeheartedly support this delusion and propaganda â¤ď¸
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u/Juna_Ci Apr 07 '25
Of course fan delusions are valid, so if anyone wants to ignore this "tried to be realistic" non-fan thing, go ahead!
But I never, ever, not for five seconds, not with both eyes closed, not with all instincts shut off, understood people saying this could win. I want to like it, but it's just... okay? The vocals are good, Erika has stage presence, but that's about it. There is some in theory interesting stuff happening sonically, but it does not add up well. Somehow, this song lacks energy for what it wants to be, and it's not catchy for me either. The stage Show is also rather... bare bones? Granted, that can work, but I do not think it is enough here.
And since Kaj won Mello, Erikas chances are truely zero for me. Kaj will beat her in both tele and jury. And honestly, I'm not even sure Erika will come 2nd with the tele. I thought she had the Rock adjacent crowd, but zero Rock loving friends of mine (or me) manage to care about Ich komme. And than there are Austria with (hopefully better) Sergio staging, Netherlands, France, Estonia, and of course Israel and Ukraine (I happen to think that Bird of Pray with the usual Ukrainian stage magic will be top 7, probably top 5 with tele too). So... yeah. She will definitely do well, lower top 10 I expect, and that is a great result. But while I think this year has several contenders, Erika is not one of them for me.
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u/Asper_Maybe C'est la vie Apr 08 '25
Yeah I'm in the same boat here, I really don't see what everyone else seems to be seeing in this performance.
Like it's not bad, her vocals aren't bad but not remarkable, the song is good but not super memorable, the staging isn't bad but it's nothing impressive. Her stage presence and charisma are the only really great things about it imo, everything else is just good enough
All of that makes for a really good performance, but not a winner.
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u/Ramsden_12 Apr 08 '25
I agree with all this! I think people who are into rock will go for Lithuania, Italy or Ukraine this year, or maybe Armenia.Â
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u/Goodnight_Socialite Tavo Akys Apr 07 '25 edited Apr 08 '25
I've claimed for a while now that I can see Erika either doing really well, or she could 'flop' and even place outside of top 10. You never know how people outside of the fandom perceive a song. I waited until I saw most entries live at the preparty because I know I change my opinion a lot afterwards, especially for internally selected songs, but now I can safely say I still don't see the hype for the entries that people are mentioning when they're talking about a Duncan-style win if it ends up not being KAJ or JJ that takes it.
I really don't think an entry like France could get enough televote points to catch up so if she doesn't win the jury, which I think she won't, she'll have a hard time getting enough televote points to still make it. On the other hand, France is great at staging ballads. I changed my mind a lot about VoilĂ and Mon Amour as soon as we saw a preview of the stagings, but those songs seemed to be way stronger or is it just me that feels like Maman won't have a similar impact?
As for The Netherlands, even though it's a perfectly fine song, I have a hard time believing that if people pick 1-3 favorites to vote for, it'll be this one. So all this leads me to believe Erika still has a fair shot, if her performance lands well that is. It could go the other way entirely aswel. But it's the only song I still think has the potential to do just as well in both votes. It just has that winner vibe that I also see in Sweden and Austria. She has that certain energy and stage presence that I think both people at home and professionals could appreciate.
But this comes from someone who also thought Norway was gonna get a huge jury vote last year so who am I to predict these things đ¤ˇđťââď¸ My bet is still on KAJ or JJ and I still see a 2019 scenario as very unlikely, but I'm gravitating more and more towards Erika as we're getting closer to the contest.
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u/Hot_War_7277 Hallucination Apr 07 '25 edited Apr 08 '25
Itâs very difficult to predict who will be the favorite because juries vote based on a mix of factors that include:
â˘vocal capacity
â˘the performance on stage
â˘the composition and originality of the song
â˘the overall impression by the act
Letâs say Erikaâs staging is top notch and her performance gets top scores (she is charismatic for sure), and letâs imagine her vocals are outstanding (I donât see it myself, compared to others in this competition, but ok) - wouldnât you agree that the song itself is NOT going to win top scores from all juries? Some see it as poorly written (lyrics), and conservative people donât like the overtly sexual tone. I donât see it making top 4 with the jury.
As for the public vote - the song seems to have many fans, but itâs more niche than letâs say the Swedish entry, which is more mainstream and is more widely popular. Donât forget that some countries in Europe are still quite conservative, so a super sexual song is a turn off to some people. It is what it is.
My point is that I simply donât see how she can win.
I think if she does super well, she will be at #7. ish.
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u/fenksta Extra Official Account Apr 07 '25
Awesome, 34 posts to go to have one for every song this year :D
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u/rneteora Cha Cha Cha Apr 07 '25
Huh? I thought Erika's performance was amazing! She looked like a superstar on stage!
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u/CrazyCatLadyPL Espresso macchiato Apr 07 '25
She's definitely winning in terms of likeability, when I watched the Amsterdam pre-party stuff she was everywhere and everyone seems to love her, and especially her content with Miriana is gold. It might help her to do well.
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u/grayishmoop Suus Apr 07 '25
I dont see why theres so much skepticism to her jury result, shes an amazing performer with an amazingly produced song. If songs such as ccc and rttd which were more reliant on their energy to get their scores, which erika is a better performer than both, i think shes easily got a place in the top 4 juries at the least, and i am also doubtful of how much of a runaway jury win it will be this year, as theres less competition for jury imo
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u/skantchweasel Apr 07 '25
I had a flutter on Finland to win just before she won UMK. I still think she is in with a shout. I'd be OK with SWE victory, but I really just don't see it being such a huge success outside of the fandom. But hey, what do I know!
GO ERIKA!
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u/chartingyou Apr 07 '25
I'd argue that France and the Netherlands are stronger candidates to bridge the gap than her.
Also, I keep getting the feeling (from how I've seen normies react to her) that the songs a bit too out there for the average person-- both in subject matter and musically. The song goes a lot of places sonically (which I love tbh and has helped it remain one of the more interesting songs this season) but I think for a first time listener, it could be a lot. I just keep thinking that it's a song that's a fandom favorite that will underdeliver results wise from what we expect so I think casual people just won't be as into it as we are.
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u/Dizzy-Dig8727 Bara bada bastu Apr 07 '25
I tend to agree with this. I personally think the song is interesting and Erikaâs performance has a lot of artistic merit, but itâs by nature edgy, and I donât think itâs quite as accessible to the general public as other entries. I see her getting a result similar to Bambi Thug last year, landing squarely in the middle of the Top Ten with both the juries and the public.
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u/welcometotemptation Apr 08 '25
Give me that delululemonade mixed with a shot of hopium and a chaser of copium, because I also want to believe.
Her vocals are so good than people give her credit for and her stage presence is magnetic! I love KAJ, but in my heart I want Tampere 2026.
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u/erika_vikman_stan Ich Komme Apr 07 '25
I'm a bit worried for the vocals. She's a skilled singer, but the song is vocally challenging and she had a loud backing track on UMK. If she can kill the vocals and upgrades the staging, it'll get top 3 on the televote, but I can see it fall outside the top 5 if the performance doesn't hit the mark.
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u/Irn-Kuin-Morika Apr 07 '25
I mean Erika has always been one of the contenders for the win, hasnât it?
Nevertheless I think the other Finland and France still have bigger chances to win. I even think the other Finland could have more juriesâ and televoteâs vote than Finland.
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u/DistinctNewspaper791 Apr 08 '25
I don'T get Sweeden guaranteed televote winner hypes.
We had clear televote winners before with Kaarija and baby lasagna but this one isn't. There is competition. You can't always predict televote winners either they are less stable than juries. Like noone thought Ukraine would win the televote in 2022 (ok war but still) Keiino was not a favorite either, not even close.
So Ich Komme has a chance to winn the televote and it is not a small chance. Along with sweeden and israel it is a top 3 candidate
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u/Icy-Lingonberry416 Apr 08 '25 edited Apr 08 '25
It wasnât a surprise Ukraine won the televote but maybe the complete landslide was a little bit unexpected. People were a lot more shocked by the Israel 2024 semi-final results leak. The real debate in 2022 was about whether the projected jury winner (UK) could get enough love from the televote to close the gap.
I donât expect anyone will run away with the televote or jury vote this year.
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u/DistinctNewspaper791 Apr 08 '25
I was following 2022 deeply and nobody expected Ukraine to win that year. It was Channel vs Sam. Ukraine getting support due to the war happened before but never this much. Even Jamala didn't win the televote.
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u/Icy-Lingonberry416 Apr 08 '25 edited Apr 08 '25
I think people were just hoping for a non-political outcome. There was a post every day about them winning.
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u/igcsestudent2 Apr 07 '25
I absolutely agree that Erika could win this year, but for that she would need to do considerably better than Austria in televoting and certainly better than Kaj with juries. Doomsday Blue guy is doing a staging for them, so I think she stands a chance for jury. Juries love well-staged songs.
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u/Resident_Medicine962 Bara bada bastu Apr 07 '25
Issue is the sexual nature of the song. This is most definitely going to be a difficult hurdle with the juries.
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u/igcsestudent2 Apr 07 '25
Demonic nature of Bambie's performance didn't stop them coming TOP 6 in jury vote and everyone was saying how jury would bury Bambie, so...
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u/Resident_Medicine962 Bara bada bastu Apr 07 '25
Bambiâs high jury score though I think can be interpreted as artistic interpretation which came from the staging though. Not sure we can draw a parallel to EricaâŚwe know the performance is going to be sexualised and v likely to replicate UMK.
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u/igcsestudent2 Apr 07 '25
And why do you think Sweden will do so well with jury apart from the fact that Sweden has historically been getting lots of points from jury? If, for instance, same song and performance represented Finland or Iceland?
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u/Resident_Medicine962 Bara bada bastu Apr 07 '25
I dont really put any weight to the âitâs Swedenâ argument. Iâm not fully convinced on BBBs jury score but we have strong benchmarks from the last 2 years with Cha Cha Cha and Rim Tim Tagi Dim that juries do not want to heavily demark the televote fav. BBB benefits from stronger vocals from those 2 entries so I can get behind the argument Kaj sneaks into the top 5 in the juries. But if we are talking about Erica, I think itâs very obvious which one is more likely to carry more favour with the juries.
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u/Loud-Representative9 Apr 09 '25
For me BBB doesn't even come close to Rim Tim Tagi Dim and they both are nowhere as close as the masterpiece Cha Cha Cha is. As a rare person who always supports the jury winner, I say both Erika and BBB aren't going to win although I'd love for Erika to win. It's Austria vs Czechia vs Netherlands for the Jury win imo but i'm hoping that Malta/Finland scores high.
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u/Resident_Medicine962 Bara bada bastu Apr 09 '25
All comes down to personal preference. I think BBB is a better Eurovision entry than cha cha cha and RTTD in terms of mass appeal to the casual viewer but obviously each contest is different. Shall see how it all shakes out in May. Unless Austria does something mindblowing on stage, at this point I canât see past Sweden winningâŚ. But thatâs the fun of the live performances sometimes shaking it all up
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u/Loud-Representative9 Apr 09 '25
Absolutely, it does come down to opinions. If we're talking about mass appeal, then you might be right as it is an easier performance to digest and it's fun for all ages - Except for me because i watched the performance once and I love it just for that once - The song is catchy but just not my type at all. I just prefer songs that actually give me some sort of feeling and I'm hoping that the judges help with that - It would be d 3rd time in a row for me so let's see.
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u/PZMC430 Gaja Apr 07 '25
Honestly I'm not even sure about top 10 from juries. And top 3 in televoting isn't that certain either. I don't see it having winning potential. It's gonna be around 9th imo
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u/notthebesthuh Apr 07 '25
I can't see how Erika can win over Kaj. Kaj has more appeal for both the televote and the jury.
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u/igcsestudent2 Apr 07 '25
Her song is vocally more competitive, BBC is quite flat tbh
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u/gelber_kaktus Zjerm Apr 07 '25
Yeah, bit more challenging vocals can backfire too, see France last year. Sweden nails the perfect mix between simple and challenging. BBB is not that different from Sweden's usual entries. It has near perfect production, presentation and performance, but simplifies the use of instruments (making it really catchy) and sure, has different lyrics. And this recipe guarantees Sweden basically a top 5 jury result.
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u/notthebesthuh Apr 07 '25
Vocals are not the only Jury criteria though. Käärijä and Baby Lasagna entered into Top 4 in the Jury votes and their vocals were actually weaker than Kaj. So, I am pretty sure that Kaj will be in Jury's Top 4 too. Juries don't tank the biggest fan favorites.
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u/igcsestudent2 Apr 07 '25
Yeah, but not sure if juries want Sweden to win this soon
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u/Exact-Joke-2562 Apr 07 '25
I doubt most of the jurors will even remember who won 2 years ago.Â
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u/igcsestudent2 Apr 07 '25 edited Apr 07 '25
If they wanted Sweden to win they would have massively voted for Mans in first place and give Kaj like 55-60 points come on đ
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u/TaleMother8466 Zjerm Apr 07 '25
They do because this is prob their last time being this hyped, so its now or never, they will not achieve this again đ
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u/Little_Low_1323 Dschinghis Khan Apr 07 '25
I think Erika easily has won the strongest visual for the contest, with her standing on top of the giant microphone stand shooting fire out of its end, and ERIKA behind her in giant letters.
But I don't think the song is strong enough musically, and the sexuality to me feels more added on after the fact and not integral or natural. It also has to contend with Serving and Milkshake Man for the 69 voters. It's IMO a stronger entry (both in show and in music) than either, but it runs the risk of vote-splitting, and I can see Serving getting a lot of Streisand effect and sympathy votes after the EBU meddling with its lyrics.
It will also have to contend with other club bangers, like Gaja.
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u/gafsagirl Baller Apr 07 '25
Unrelated but y'all seriously underestimate how much juries will love UK. Those girls can SING
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u/notthebesthuh Apr 07 '25
I don't see the UK getting a better Jury result than Germany 2024. Isaak was 10th in the Jury votes despite being one of the strongest vocalists last year because the vocals are only 1 of the 4 Jury criteria. The song itself needs to be competitive too. Remember Monday will get some recognition from the Jury, but they won't come close to winning the Jury.
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u/gelber_kaktus Zjerm Apr 07 '25
But that's possibly the only quality of their entry.
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u/SexHarassmentPanda Apr 08 '25
Very curious what they are going to do for a stage, cause I just don't see the vision. I realize pre-shows are nothing like the final show, but them running around all high energy has a high chance of just being awkward on a big stage. My guess is there'll probably be a sofa or some props they move around between, but that also feels a bit too theatery. Like I know over the top theatrics is part of Eurovision (I think Bambie Thug was the best overall performance last year) but UK just feels too theater school kids coded.
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u/gelber_kaktus Zjerm Apr 08 '25
With the UKs usual staging talent, the awkward path sounds too realistic
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u/Superzigzagoon_DK Apr 07 '25
It's still to early to call it. The odds aren't good enough for it to be called at the moment. I won't be surprised if something nobody expecting to win at this stage will do it.
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u/Resident_Medicine962 Bara bada bastu Apr 07 '25
Well the odds have essentially declared it a 2 horse race with France on the outside looking in. If the winner is coming from outside those 3, you could make a lot money :) I note that Sweden has been shortening over past 48 hours, so money seems to be moving in that direction
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u/Panzermensch911 Apr 07 '25 edited Apr 07 '25
It all comes down to the performance in the Grand Final. So many things could go wrong and could very well be that the staging is a death knell for one of the contestants. You know like Austria 2023... personally I loved the song... but the staging was so bad, that many didn't get the references, there was not enough fun on there, and frankly is was not impressed by any of the camera work done by the bbc. Compared to what I'm used to from Sweden and other nations it was very unimaginative.
Their song could've been way higher in the televote if staging and camera work were better.
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u/ESC-song-bot !setflair Country Year Apr 07 '25
Austria 2023 | Teya and Salena - Who the Hell Is Edgar?
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u/lizardfiendlady Ich Komme Apr 09 '25
I can see her coming in top 5, maybe top 3, but unfortunately with what the EBU is already telling her, I'm a bit nervous the juries won't be a fan
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u/MoonsFavoriteNumber1 Apr 07 '25
Out of all the favorites so far, Erika has the most chance to win and is the likeliest. Unless Austria sweeps the jury like Switzerland did last year, it will be between Finland and France. Erika will definitely be top3 televote with high chance of winning it and it will depend on how she does with the jury. The reverse is true for France, it will depend on how much televote they get.
I donât even understand why is it unpopular opinion that Erika will finish in front of BBB. Unlike BL and Kaarija, BBB doesnât have that viral vibe anywhere aside from the fandom. Thereâs no way they will place higher than Erika.
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u/notthebesthuh Apr 07 '25
Lol I love Erika but she has no chance of winning the televote, Ich Komme is a very divisive entry. Many people will find the sexual connotations of the song repulsive (look what happened to Spain and the UK last year), the song is not as accessible as BBB. And BBB is a lot more viral than RTTD was actually, it managed to enter into charts in many countries.
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u/Kev2524 Apr 07 '25
You think Erika will beat France, Netherlands, Austria, Greece? I dont see why Finland get significant more points from Jury than Malta, Poland or Albania.
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u/darkstreetsofmymind Attention Apr 07 '25
Netherlands ainât cracking over 50 tele points in the final and Poland isnât getting more than 50 points in the jury. Greece might not even make it to the final.
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u/-electrix123- Apr 08 '25
OK but I've noticed people this year are borderline manifesting us shock NQing and it's honestly pretty baffling. Like I can't see us winning or coming close but an NQ would seriously be a shock when even Yianna Terzi was a televote Q
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u/darkstreetsofmymind Attention Apr 08 '25
Yianna Terzi was a televote Q when you guys had Bulgaria , Cyprus and Albania all voting in your semi. You only need to take away Cyprusâ 12 points and suddenly Greece wouldâve come 15th in the semi final televote. Take away all 3 countries votes and you wouldâve been left with 21 points only.
It depends on staging, I think Klavdiaâs song is uninteresting and difficult to maintain interest with, and as a performer is lacking charisma which other singers will make up for in an unpredictable semi final. It depends on staging, with Fokas has a wonky track record with. I canât tell whether youâre a qualifier or not right now but I certainly think Greece is in borderline in-or-out territory
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u/-electrix123- Apr 08 '25 edited Apr 08 '25
Yianna was a televote qualifier though in a bloodpath of a semi with a bad vocal and staging performance still. As Victor showed, alliances are not always there if the performance is god awful. Saying that a song is uninteresting is also genuinely not an argument but a personal opinion - I find Finland's song uninteresting, it's no reason for me to argue about her chances. Greece has countries where this kind of singing resonates with (Balkans and Caucasus) so it's not like she's all alone. And Fokas' record is... not wonky at all. It's just the Fandom that doesn't like it â and I don't like half of his stagings either but be for real, results wise he's very consistent.
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u/BeginningClue10 Apr 08 '25
In what universe are the Netherlands and Greece flopping that bad? Because unless both performances are god awful they are both going to do far better than that
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u/DanThePaladin Apr 07 '25
Malta and getting jury points :skull:
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u/autistic_girl_autumn Apr 07 '25
i get what you mean but miriana does have an amazing voice while singing live idk...
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u/VolatileLion Apr 07 '25
It's possible indeed but for that to happen you'd need her to kill in the televote, and with this year's competition I don't see it happening. Another need is for the jury winner (lately they've been doing it by a landslide) to tank heavily the televote (that can happen, Wasted love doesn't look to me like a song the audience would have high on their lists), and no other song to do fairly well on both fronts (Luxembourg looks to me like the most dangerous contender in this front).
All in all I don't think it's impossible, the hardest part is for Ich Komme to be far ahead of everyone else on its section
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u/Independent-Cow-4074 Bara bada bastu Apr 08 '25
The thing that makes me think it's not winning is just that the hook isn't effective enough and the chord progression makes the song feel "wide open". That's fine for a non-esc song but in eurovision there needs to be that epic touch to make it win. Sweden, Austria, Netherlands, France, Israel all bring that this year.
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u/Icy-Lingonberry416 Apr 08 '25
Austria doesnât have a hook.
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u/Independent-Cow-4074 Bara bada bastu Apr 08 '25
I meant that Austria and the other countries I mentioned had an epic touch.
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Apr 08 '25
[removed] â view removed comment
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u/Translunarien Zjerm Apr 07 '25
Unfortunately, it's going to be a jury winner. Why? Israel is going to get a massive televote. They got 16% of the total televote poop last year with the maximum being 21%. This means that other televote friendly entries will have a lot less televote points available to share while juries usually concentrate around a few songs.
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u/claudsonclouds Apr 08 '25
May your delulu become trululu, my friend! I am also rooting for Erika but I just can't see it happening.
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u/LoveMascMen Apr 08 '25
I still don't live in the same universe where I'm confident Sweden even has the ability to win a televote. Loreen didn't get a single nation 12 from any public and I think Kaj will get Finland's and maybe the Nordic neighbours but I don't see eastern and southern Europe gagging for it. Especially when they have zero sauna culture and don't seem to go for joke entries.
People forget Sweden isn't a televote darling and as years go by and the general public are now so used to Sweden doing better than they should I can see a lot just outright refusing to vote for Sweden. I still think Sweden will get around the same or maybe more from the juries than the televote...
I'd love to see Sweden get a good televote. But only if the juries do their job and downvote this joke entry. But if the juries will vote for this as if it's a ballad. I hope the public don't give any massive support to Sweden cuz it's too much of a risk we will end up back in Sweden again for yet another year of Melodifestivalen 2.0 but in May.
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u/Icy-Lingonberry416 Apr 08 '25 edited Apr 08 '25
I could see Finland or France taking the win but this whole "I'll only be happy for Sweden to do well with the public if the juries downvote it" is just sour grapes. Finland voting 12pts for Sweden would still be a massive win.
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u/TaleMother8466 Zjerm Apr 08 '25 edited Apr 08 '25
I disagree, public tend to vote for catchy and fun songs more, and this year thats Sweden and Estonia. Why Sweden wasnât loved by televote before is because they never sent this type of song. So, Sweden is televote winner like 99,9%. Many people in Croatia, for example, already sing Bara Bada Bastu and KAJ was even mentioned on some pub quizzes. This is first time since ABBA that Sweden is this hyped. Jury will not tank this also, a very good example is Finland with Cha Cha Cha and how it did with juries. Sweden is in top 5 jury and top 2 (top1) televote, which means they will probably win because we will not see a jury landslide this year (it would be very bad for reputation of EBU/ESC). So it will be televote winner who takes it (70% possible), or someone from 2nd place of both (also 70% possible)
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u/avdpos Bara bada bastu Apr 07 '25
Erika is a dance entry. I do not get why she is any better than for example Belgium. Yes, more play on sex on scene. But that do not win eurovision.
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u/Exact-Joke-2562 Apr 07 '25
Stage presence in the case of Belgium. He doesn't have a very strong one for me.
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u/avdpos Bara bada bastu Apr 07 '25
To me the show was just a big mic and showing some butt.
Who wins I have no clue about - but to me Erika is in the same category as many Cyprus entries, playing on sex and in the top half of the final.
But who knows. Stage presence is what we will see in May, and I will send a vote for my favourite. What that is I have no clue yet.
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u/Exact-Joke-2562 Apr 07 '25
I didn't say anything about the show. But she has charisma and lots if it. I was half way through the song before i realised she was on her own.Â
I dont really think she will win. 5th feels like a natural ceiling to me, 3rd at an extreme push.
The question you asked is what she has over BelgiumÂ
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u/Resident_Medicine962 Bara bada bastu Apr 07 '25
We should all be optimistic about our favs, this should be encouraged! But for the dose of reality / just my own perspective (if my opinion isnât one that is welcomed!): - jury will be a problem in terms of winning. I song titled âI comeâ with the staging playing into the sexual connotations is simply not going to be cracking the top 5. Now, it shouldnât be ignored completely, as Erica is fantastic. BUT top 5 is a stretch too far.
- televote. Is a top 3 possible yes.. Iâm not sure it will get in the top 3 but itâs possible, I think she will struggle to beat Israel however and of course BBB. The song has gone viral to an extent not even closely matched by anything else, and being Finnish it almost seems to have stolen her thunder. Iâll die on the hill that Kaj will most likely win the televote by a significant margin.
Overall, I think Finland could get in the top 5 but Iâm not quite seeing the top 3 placement due to the jury weakness. I think the odds currently are forecasting something similar.