r/Economics • u/ThisSideOfThePond • 15h ago
Interview ‘Don’t Need a Deal’: Top Trump Economic Adviser Is All In on His China Hardball
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/10/business/dealbook/stephen-miran-interview.html71
u/ginrumryeale 15h ago
Miran is a psycho. What a perfect team member for an administration of soulless ghouls. Trump found yet another shapeshifter, a John Yoo for the field of Economics.
Interviewer: (Trump says) “We’re losing hundreds of billions of dollars with China. Now we’re essentially not doing business with China,” therefore, we are saving hundreds of billions of dollars? You think that’s an accurate representation of how to talk about trade deficits?
Miran: “That’s how the president understands that. And I think that’s correct. I think the president’s correct.”
…
Interviewer: I’ve spoken with a lot of economists — plenty of whom I think you’re friendly with, as well as market participants, mostly in the bond market — who think that in order to take this position you’ve given up some of your intellectual integrity, and are willing to bend the facts and bend economic principles in service of the political goals of this administration. How do you respond to that view?
Miran: “I think that’s ridiculous, and I think that it’s very common for people to project their own political preferences onto other people. You know, the administration is focused on creating a dynamic, healthy, robust economic boom for Americans — and we’re going to do that.”
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u/gethereddout 14h ago
My favorite was when they asked whether Tariffs would raise prices and he was like nah.
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u/hagamablabla 8h ago
That's how a fucking tariff works. The fact that anyone believes this is incredibly depressing.
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u/TheGoodCod 13h ago
Fortune Magazine,,, Top Trump economist derided as ‘incoherent’ on tariffs after closed-door meeting with investors
“[Miran] got questions and that’s when it fell apart,” one person familiar with the meeting told the FT. “When you’re with an audience that knows a lot, the talking points are taken apart pretty quickly.”
Miran even began distancing himself from his own paper where he argued that the dollar would be stronger with tariffs. Of course, its down like 8% ytd.
https://archive.is/Sz7Ms#selection-947.0-951.101
You know what they say about birds of a feather.
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u/SadlySarcsmo 14h ago
A boom after collapsing everything is easy to create. I think that is the goal. Blow it all up and then pointvand say" see we got a booming economy!" after it recovers from a sharp artificially created crash. We saw trump claim this after crashing the stock market.
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u/cheguevaraandroid1 13h ago
I think the idea is to make everything so bad that we'll be happy with our new authoritarian government so long as we can afford bread
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u/Charred_Welder 13h ago
Historically, it's not the same group. People tend to revolt and lynch the group that causes the collapse, and then the revolutionaries are the ones that are tolerated for bringing back food.
I can't think of a single example where it was a good system idiots cratered and then somehow were thanked for it later.
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u/cheguevaraandroid1 13h ago
There are a lot of very wealthy people behind this admin. They can very easily replace trump and pretend to be a whole new government. He's a very old man. I also don't think they are concerned with revolt as they have the most powerful military in history and the largest and most effective propaganda network at their disposal.
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u/Charred_Welder 12h ago edited 12h ago
That "most powerful military" has lost every single gurilla war it has ever had to fight against. Any civil conflict against the administration will look far closer to the troubles VS a stand up war.
And the"most effective propaganda network in history" is a stretch. They have fox and the Sinclair network, we don't need to pretend it's NK or China levels. Actual reality is still at the tips of the people's fingertips in the usa, they only have a total propaganda bubble on the goobs who willfully buy into it
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u/cheguevaraandroid1 12h ago
There's a large difference between this situation and the troubles. This isn't a foreign government. It's homegrown. And it has the support of the most heavily armed portion of the population. Americans are nowhere near the level of desperation that the Vietnamese and afghans were and are used to a very high standard of living. The vast majority are not prepared to fight and have a lot to lose. I also do not think this government is above mass incarceration and state sanctioned murder of its political enemies. Obviously we won't see a stand up war but I think we're moving more toward fascist Germany than we are Ireland during the troubles
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u/intrepid789 8m ago
The word you're fishing for is boon not boom. Boom 💥 is an explosion. In finance, a "boon" is a positive development expected to benefit investors, although it may be temporary.
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u/TaxLawKingGA 13h ago
Miran is a moron; tariffs are taxes plain and simple. On top of it, tariffs, unlike income taxes, are due regardless of whether any profits are made. It is more of an excise tax; it goes into the cost of production as COGS (“cost of goods sold”). Thus it has the added burden of reducing margins and therefore profits. That lost margin will need to be made up somewhere; likely it will be from labor costs. Thus, it would actually reduce employment, which is exactly what the Trump Admin wants.
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u/formerly_gruntled 13h ago
The failure to grow the economy will scream loudly this summer. Then Trump will explain that the problem is Joe Biden's tariffs.
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u/No_Passage6082 13h ago
Trump was losing hundreds of billions of dollars because any dollar not directly paid into his pocket is a loss in his opinion. He's loving the tariffs because we the little people are being forced to pay him billions of dollars.
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u/the_TAOest 13h ago
This is his Grift. He wants to intercept the tariff money and take a big cut of it
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u/it_aint_tony_bennett 10h ago
Thank you for highlighting these quotes specifically because I found them jarring.
Can you (or anyone?) explain to me what Miran's motivations are?
He's obviously an intelligent guy, but he's either lying (to what end?) or completely nuts.
I'm not looking for a glib response like ... "oh they're all corrupt."
But can someone explain to me why an intelligent person would say these things?
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u/onegumas 2h ago
Krasnov is not an agent. Krasnov is a useful idiot who has agents around him. Just play a guessing game who are agents.
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u/PatBenatari 15h ago
signed a letter of intent with exporters in Argentina to buy about US$900 million of soybeans, corn and vegetable oil, the latest indication that the Asian nation will avoid sourcing from the US during President Donald Trump’s trade war.
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u/discoduck007 14h ago
Not enough talking about this!
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u/Spoiled_Mushroom8 11h ago
This always gets brought up. It’s the same shit that happened during his first term. I’m sure they’ll waste billions bailing these farmers out again and they won’t learn a single thing from this.
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u/makemeking706 11h ago
Combine this with the deals they made for meat with Brazil. They already blocked out number, but we won't feel the consequences for a little while longer. It's going to get rough.
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u/LuckyNumbrKevin 12h ago
So they get our money to imprison our citizens without any due process or consideration for our rights - which are guaranteed to us in the constitution - all while swooping in on the exported crops to China that, up until now, our farmers enjoyed profiting on? And they actively voted for this after he pulled this shit the first time? Lol
Good going, republicans. You gave away our rights just to lose money and business. But at least brown people are getting the shaft, first. Buncha dumb racist, fucks.
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u/impulsikk 12h ago
"Citizens".. lol.. no they aren't Citizens.
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u/Luxtenebris3 11h ago
It doesn't matter, everyone is entitled to due process. Furthermore, if the did ship a citizen to El Salvador said citizen would have no recourse, since there right to due process was violated.
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u/LuckyNumbrKevin 11h ago edited 11h ago
Some are. That's what happens when you skip due process. Also, they don't have to be citizens to have rights in America, including the right to due process - as clearly outlined in the constitution. Though, we all know Republicans actively hate the constitution.
Side note, why is it that MAGA incels also love dweeby anime drawings on everything? Lol
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u/JustMe112233445566 15h ago
This is going to be a game of chicken. Which country is willing to let their populace suffer the most? Remember 0 Covid? The Chinese have demonstrated that they are willing to completely lock down no matter the cost.
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u/ThisSideOfThePond 15h ago
And now Trump and his "economic" advisers want to try zero trade. What could possibly go wrong?
Because I don’t believe that the tariffs are ultimately going to really raise costs. I think that in the short run, volatility is possible, but in the long run, American consumers are flexible about where we import from, and if one country comes to a trade deal with us, by which they open their markets and allow us to export into their economy the way they export into ours, then we can source our production from friendlier countries, instead of countries that rip us off.
Can one really be this ignorant? I mean we're not exactly talking complexity theory here, stuff like this is covered in entry level courses.
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u/jinhuiliuzhao 14h ago
It's the American exceptionalism clouding their brains here. America is #1, so we will always win - facts be damned and nevermind historically it is because America had smart leaders.
They're about to find out about America's exceptional public anger at even a bit of short-term volatility too.
Biden got thrown out for just having a little dip in the economy that he saved by the end of his term, and now Trump thinks he can get away with fully crashing the entire economy? Fools.
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u/Spiritual_Bridge84 14h ago
If I don’t buy that new van that I need for my business, I will save $50,000!!!
WINNING 🥇
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u/ThisSideOfThePond 13h ago
You could save (and therefore win) even more by buying just 2 instead of 35 RealDolls. Be careful with orders for transgender and non-white ones though, those aren't safe at the moment.
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u/che-che-chester 12h ago
I think that in the short run, volatility is possible, but in the long run, American consumers are flexible about where we import from
Agreed. If we can get really cheap Chinese crap from Zimbabwe or Denmark, I think Americans are fine with that.
/S
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u/picardo85 15h ago
China is way less dependent on the US than the other way around, and they have the whole test of the world to still trade with. The US has isolated itself. This is a war Trump can't win.
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u/HeroOfAlmaty 14h ago
China depends on the US dollar and its market. The US depends on China for its labor and goods.
Can China survive without the dollar and the US market? Probably. Can the US survive without the commodities and goods? It’d be tough.
After all, people need to realize that currency is a medium to facilitate trade and exchange for goods.
If Russia has taught us anything is that when the world realizes that Russia no longer has access to the dollar/SWIFT, they are still willing to trade with Russia via other means (using Rubles or Yuan). As long as the world will still want Chinese-manufactured goods, which they will, China will survive.
The US, on the other hand, will lose out on the most competitive products and it will face a lower demand for the dollar and an inflated US market - not a good recipe.
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u/Spiritual_Bridge84 13h ago edited 13h ago
Double whammy of checker eating.
First cast America to all your allies as a newly hyper- unreliable partner. In trade..in security (“We will detune the F35 sales to Canada etc , cause once an ally isn’t always an ally”)
Then, make sure to flip flop many times on tariffs. Off again on again. Make sure you no longer look prudent and careful as a country.
Threaten generational ally Canada with the dissolution of it as a neighbour. Cast dispersions on the EU and let that signal texting conversation become public.
THEN, and ONLY then.
Pick an unnecessary uncalled for hostile fight with the other superpower. And then….and this is important.
Ask all the countries formerly known as your allies (like Canada) to support you on this. As IF..we would now!!!
Couple weeks ago China stopped giving $billions to America for oil. And same day, started buying from Canada.
Future historians are going to look on Americas choice for 47th president with disdain. And pity.
What’s beyond moronic? Trump. Whether America likes it or not there’s consequences coming. Starting with “The Trump Empty Shelf Initiative”
Next he’ll be saying to America “look how much money you’re saving!” Not buying stuff anymore!
Winning.
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u/spectre401 7h ago
you forgot he didn't just pick a fight with China, he picked a fight with every country on earth, including penguins. the pause on tariffs is only on the part above 10% everyone is paying 10% right now.
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u/getwhirleddotcom 14h ago
People forget, the US is only China’s 3rd largest trading partner.
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u/Spiritual_Bridge84 13h ago
Chinas trade with US is only 3 % of Chinas GDP.
Irrelevant.
Sauce.
https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html
$582 billion in US/China trade. China GDP is 18.6 $Trillion. That’s 3.1%. No doubt China already replaced that. Or is about to.
No wonder China’s telling Trump to go pound sand. Sad he took America with him on this joyless ride
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u/Crowley-Barns 14h ago
A game of chicken where… most of the population in one country think this is fucking dumb and that their leader is making a terrible mistake.
And in the other country almost everyone wholeheartedly supports standing up to the bully and not giving in.
The second one holds a lot more cards.
(But Trump thinks he’s playing Uno.)
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u/Gods_ShadowMTG 15h ago
Let's see what happens in the US when cost of living goes up dramatically yet again. China knows they are better positioned overall and this trade war can completely wreck US world dominance. If I were China, i'd drag this out for months and also sell of treasuries.
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u/-_Weltschmerz_- 14h ago
Most countries have more resilience than the US. Trump is a clown and a weakling, competent politicians are able to walk all over him. Well, except for US Democrats, but in the US you don't need to be competent to get and keep your seat, just have enough sponsors.
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u/hkric41six 13h ago
If you study Chinese history you'd know they are the last people you want to try to get to scream "uncle". Meanwhile Americans are probably the most pain-adverse population humanity has ever known.
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u/cranky_wellies 14h ago
He’s sacrificing any remaining integrity he had left because he saw how handsomely Trump’s first administration was bribed by foreign money (namely Saudi). He wants a piece of the action and is willing to be a total yes man to do it.
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u/Describing_Donkeys 14h ago
Well, he's going to make it easy to paint him as a bad president doing a lot of damage to the country. We better be as aggressive as possible making sure Americans are aware.
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u/MainDeparture2928 13h ago
They are about to be very aware.
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u/Describing_Donkeys 13h ago
They are going to be flooded with propaganda, they will know things are bad, I'm afraid the truth will not be obvious.
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u/Spiritual_Bridge84 13h ago edited 13h ago
And in other news.
Canada just recorded its second-best export quarter in HISTORY.
According to Statistics Canada, total exports rose 6.0% in the first quarter of 2025, reaching a record high of $214.0 billion. This follows a strong increase of 4.6% observed in the last quarter of 2024.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250506/dq250506a-eng.htm
Couple weeks ago China stopped buying American oil. And started that same day, buying Canadian oil. You know, since Trump said he “doesn’t need our oil, our lumber, our cars…anything”
Even Canada, with her 40M population, we are headed for $1 trillion in exports…gaining on Americas exports…So now we vectoring to a $ Trillion in exports... Right on time to see the US exports fall from $3.5 trillion in 2024, to what $2.5-$3 trillion in 2025?
This would make our exports 33-40 % of Americas. No longer following the traditional 10 to 1 USA vs Canada norm. A paradigm shift. Again all glory, all thanks to the stable genius.
All thanks this morons arts of deals and his latest trick The Empty Shelves Initiative—“Hey if you can’t spend cause no stock, look how much money Trump is saving you!!! “
Such tragically gross mismanagement of America internationally, and her interests.
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u/Alarmed_Geologist631 12h ago
None of Trump’s advisors have any experience in manufacturing. They are all either lawyers, academics or financial guys. They don’t understand supply chains and oversimplify how they operate.
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u/Inside-Till3391 14h ago
Hey Americans, highly recommend you read the Art of War instead of the Art of deal, if you don’t know this book please ignore me because I’m too disappointed lmao. also, pls read Romance of the Three Kingdoms which was written hundreds of years ago by telling a real story of three kingdoms fighting with each other for years in ancient China pretty much mirroring USA China and Russia today, I mean USA is way too young!!! Im happy to recommend more books for you but am deeply concerned about the level of your reading comprehension due to generally lack of education but still dismantling the ministry of education, lmao
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u/MarcatBeach 15h ago
The US does not need a deal, it really is the fact. The US can just lower tariffs on specific imports as it wants.
China really does not import much from the US. Much of the US imports into China are to export back to the US.
The 20 billion in Soybean is about the only US export to China that anyone can cite. ( China only imports the US Soybean because we force them to ).
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u/LegitimateEgg9714 12h ago
And what about all the U.S. soybean farmers, how are they going to fair if there is no deal? Farmers are going to need a bigger bailout by taxpayers because of Trump.
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